India’s ascent to major power status in the 2025 Asia Power Index has rewritten the strategic contours of the region at a moment when geopolitical uncertainty is at its peak. The Lowy Institute’s latest edition of the Index places India third overall, behind only the United States and China, marking the first time New Delhi has crossed the threshold required to be recognised as a major power. This shift reflects a broader structural trend in Asia, where economic rebalancing, military modernisation and diplomatic realignments have created new opportunities for middle powers to expand their influence. For India, the journey to a major power has been gradual but consistent, driven by sustained economic growth, improvements in military capability and expanding cultural influence across the region.
The 2025 ranking not only affirms India’s growing material weight but also cements its position as a central player in shaping Asia’s strategic direction over the next decade. The significance of this moment becomes even more apparent when viewed alongside the trajectory of other leading powers. While the United States still sits at the top of the table, it has recorded one of the steepest declines since the Index began in 2018. China continues to rise steadily, narrowing the gap with Washington and reinforcing its advantage in economic relationships and diplomatic influence. Against this backdrop, India’s rise to third place signals an important recalibration of power distribution within Asia.
Why the United States, China and India define the top tier of Asian power in 2025
The Lowy Institute’s comprehensive framework evaluates countries across eight pillars of capability and influence, which together produce a multidimensional picture of regional power. In 2025, the United States retains first place but with its lowest score on record. The weakening comes from a decline in diplomatic influence and a reduced lead in military capability. China remains second and continues to consolidate its position as a peer competitor, boosting its military readiness, expanding its global diplomatic network and strengthening its ability to withstand economic coercion.
India’s third place ranking puts it ahead of Japan and Russia, which occupy the fourth and fifth positions respectively. Japan’s score has stagnated due to a combination of demographic pressures and limited economic growth, while Russia has rebounded slightly because of strategic alignment with countries such as China and North Korea. India’s score of 40 points gives it a clear classification as a major power, which requires surpassing this threshold. Until 2024, New Delhi fell just short of this mark, ranking as a middle power despite its growing profile. Crossing the line in 2025 carries both symbolic and practical significance. It confirms India’s rising potential while acknowledging that its capabilities have now matured to a scale where its influence can meaningfully shape Asian outcomes.
Where Pakistan stands in the power hierarchy and what it reveals about regional asymmetry
Pakistan, in contrast, remains far from the top tier. The country ranks 16th in the 2025 Index, placing it outside the top ten and firmly within the minor power grouping. Pakistan’s military capability score is relatively strong and continues to position it among the more capable defence actors in South Asia, but its economic fundamentals, diplomatic influence and resilience metrics pull down its overall standing. This gap underscores the widening asymmetry between India and Pakistan in terms of comprehensive power. It also highlights the structural challenges Pakistan faces in translating military strength into broader regional influence.
The divergence between the two neighbours has now become more pronounced than at any time since the Index began in 2018. India’s economic rise, demographic advantage and growing technological relevance have collectively accelerated this separation. The Index indicates that Pakistan will need significant resource expansion and improved institutional stability before it can realistically push itself toward the middle power bracket.
How India’s economic firepower became the engine behind its major power rise
India’s rise in comprehensive power rests significantly on the strength of its economic capability, which has seen one of the most consistent upward trajectories in the Index. India now ranks third in economic capability, behind only the United States and China. The low inflation environment, strong GDP growth and expanding technological footprint have collectively reinforced India’s economic weight in Asia. The Index points to improvements in international leverage, global connectivity and technological sophistication as key contributors to India’s higher score in 2025.
One of the most notable developments in this year’s edition is India’s improvement in economic relationships. For the first time since the Asia Power Index was launched in 2018, India moved upward in this category, largely due to a strong surge in inward investment over the past decade. India now ranks as the second most attractive investment destination after the United States, overtaking China for the first time. This shift aligns with the broader global trend of supply chain diversification, with multinational firms increasing their presence in India as part of a China-plus-one strategy.
The Index also highlights India’s improving global connections through aviation and digital infrastructure, which have expanded its real time economic integration with other countries in the region. All these elements strengthen India’s position as a rising economic hub whose growth is increasingly tied to regional prosperity.
How Operation Sindoor helped elevate India’s military readiness profile
India’s military capability score saw meaningful improvement in 2025, and a significant factor contributing to this shift was Operation Sindoor. Launched on 7 May 2025 after the Pahalgam terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir, which killed 26 people, the operation involved precision strikes on nine terror hideouts in Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir. The Lowy Institute notes that these actions influenced expert appraisals of India’s combat experience, readiness and military posture.
This boost is particularly important because many components of the military capability measure are based on expert evaluations rather than raw data alone. As a result, real world performance has an outsized impact on a country’s perceived strength. India now ranks fourth in military capability, behind only the United States, China and Russia. While India remains far from matching China’s scale or technological depth, it has nonetheless demonstrated that it can conduct high precision cross border operations with increasing sophistication.
India’s defence investments in missiles, intelligence capabilities, cybersecurity and naval assets have also contributed to sustained growth in its capability score. Although India has not yet crossed the threshold required to be considered a military superpower, it is now closer to this line than ever before.
Why India still struggles to convert resources into proportionate influence
Despite the progress, India continues to face a significant challenge in the form of a widening negative Power Gap. This metric measures the difference between a country’s available resources and the influence it actually exerts. A negative score means that India is underperforming relative to its resource base. The 2025 Index reports that India’s Power Gap has reached its widest point on record.
Much of this comes down to two areas: defence networks and diplomatic influence. In defence networks, India ranks 11th, falling behind countries such as the Philippines and Thailand despite being a much larger security player. This is partly because India avoids formal alliances and prioritises strategic autonomy, which limits the depth of its defence partnerships. Although India has expanded defence dialogues and joined more multilateral groupings, it has not entered any binding military partnerships that could amplify its influence.
Diplomatic influence is another area where India has improved only marginally. Although the Index acknowledges that India’s diplomatic service has enhanced its quality and engagement levels, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s regional and global leadership score did not increase. The Lowy Institute suggests that India’s multi alignment strategy, while effective in expanding options, does not automatically translate into greater influence.
How China shapes the strategic ceiling for India in Asia
While India’s rise is undeniable, China’s dominance across several measures continues to shape the upper boundary of Indian influence. China’s comprehensive power score stands at 73.7, nearly double that of India. China leads in economic relationships, diplomatic influence and defence networks, which collectively give it more leverage in regional affairs. China is also regaining pre pandemic momentum in cultural influence and people exchanges as travel to and from China normalises.
These structural advantages mean that although India is rising, the gap with China is also widening in several categories. This dynamic underscores the core challenge of India’s ambition for a multipolar Asia: it must simultaneously scale its capabilities and deepen its influence at a pace fast enough to narrow the gap with China.
How India’s soft power surge is being driven by culture, travel and digital influence
India’s cultural influence score also improved in 2025. This gain is attributed to stronger people to people linkages, greater regional tourism flows and enhanced global connectivity. The Index notes that India has become a more attractive destination for travel and migration, supported by improved aviation networks such as new direct flights launched between India and Brunei in 2025. India’s online cultural projection, including its entertainment exports and digital influence, continues to expand as well.
These developments contribute to India’s rising soft power score, which plays a vital role in balancing its geopolitical and economic strengths.
Why India’s major power status still comes with an unresolved influence gap
India’s elevation to major power status is a defining moment in Asia’s strategic history. It confirms that India’s long running growth story is now translating into measurable regional power. However, the 2025 Asia Power Index also makes clear that India has not yet maximised its potential influence. The country now sits at a critical juncture where its choices about defence partnerships, economic integration and diplomatic strategy will determine whether it can convert resources into proportionate sway.
The next phase of India’s rise will depend on how effectively it closes the influence gap while navigating an intensely competitive environment dominated by China’s entrenched position and the United States’ shifting policies. For now, India’s upward trajectory remains strong, and its status as Asia’s newest major power is no longer in debate.
What are the key takeaways from India’s rise in the 2025 Asia Power Index
- India has officially crossed the 40 point threshold and entered the major power category for the first time.
- India now ranks third overall behind the United States and China, overtaking Japan decisively.
- Pakistan stands at 16th place, far outside the top ten and classified as a minor power.
- India’s economic capability rose to third place, supported by strong GDP growth and higher inward investment flows.
- Operation Sindoor improved expert assessments of India’s military readiness and combat experience.
- India’s military capability score now places it among the strongest defence actors in Asia.
- India’s economic relationships ranking improved for the first time since 2018.
- India’s weakest pillar remains defence networks, where it ranks 11th.
- India’s negative Power Gap widened, indicating it exerts less influence than its resources should support.
- China continues to extend its lead over India in economic relationships, diplomatic influence and defence networks.
- India’s cultural influence and people exchanges have strengthened, contributing to a larger soft power footprint.
- India’s next challenge is converting material strength into greater diplomatic and regional influence.
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