Hurricane Melissa intensifies into multiday assault on Jamaica with historic flooding and wind risk

Hurricane Melissa, now a Category 4 storm with sustained winds topping 140 miles per hour, has begun what meteorologists describe as a “multiday assault” on Jamaica. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned that Melissa’s slow movement, immense size, and rapid intensification could subject the island to one of the most prolonged and destructive storm events in its modern history. Torrential rain of up to 40 inches, catastrophic flash flooding, and storm surges reaching 13 feet are expected to continue through mid-week, leaving little respite for communities already bracing for disaster.

Forecasters said the system’s central pressure continues to fall rapidly, a hallmark of extreme intensification. Melissa has stalled near the island’s southern coastline, moving west-northwest at barely five miles per hour. This crawl has turned what could have been a single-day impact into a slow-motion siege. Jamaica’s Meteorological Service placed the entire island under a hurricane warning, while Prime Minister Andrew Holness said emergency shelters and relief resources have been fully activated across all parishes.

Why Hurricane Melissa’s slow motion and intensity are amplifying Jamaica’s disaster potential

The danger of Melissa lies not only in its wind speed but in its persistence. The hurricane’s sluggish drift means the same regions will endure relentless rainfall for days. According to the NHC, “life-threatening flash flooding and landslides” are expected, particularly across the mountainous interior. The Blue Mountains and parishes such as St. Andrew, St. Mary, and Portland face heightened landslide risks as rain-soaked soils lose cohesion. This hydrological setup, similar to what occurred during Hurricane Beryl in 2024, could create compounding layers of damage: flooded river basins, isolated villages, and buried roadways.

Meteorologists attribute the storm’s explosive growth to record-warm Caribbean waters, exceeding 31 degrees Celsius. The added oceanic heat has fueled rapid intensification, pushing the storm to near Category 5 strength in less than 24 hours. Satellite data reveal a sharply defined eye wall surrounded by towering convection columns, indicating continued strengthening potential. The NHC’s latest update cautioned that Melissa “could briefly reach Category 5 before making landfall.” Even if the storm does not cross that threshold, its duration over the same terrain will make rainfall totals far more destructive than wind alone.

How Jamaica’s emergency systems and communities are responding to a multiday onslaught

As conditions deteriorated through Sunday, Jamaican officials emphasized the importance of early sheltering. The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) reported that more than 40 percent of shelters had already been occupied by evening. The government has pre-positioned relief supplies, including portable generators, food, and water reserves, to sustain operations through prolonged outages.

Local reports indicate widespread power cuts across southern parishes, with the Jamaica Public Service Company warning that repairs could take days due to sustained winds and flooded substations. Communication blackouts have also affected rural communities, complicating rescue coordination. Authorities said the Jamaica Defence Force and Coast Guard are standing by for deployment once winds subside.

Humanitarian agencies, including the Red Cross and the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA), have begun mobilizing regional relief efforts. Early evacuations were encouraged for residents along low-lying coastal areas and flood plains, yet officials acknowledged that some families chose to remain at home to guard their property. Emergency coordinators cautioned that rescue operations might be delayed for hours or even days if roadways become impassable.

What meteorological factors make Melissa different from previous Caribbean hurricanes

Meteorologists say Melissa’s trajectory is unusually perilous because of its slow pace and alignment with Jamaica’s topography. The island’s central ridge line acts as a barrier that squeezes moisture-laden air upward, increasing rainfall intensity. With Melissa’s near-stationary motion, this process repeats continuously, producing rainfall accumulations reminiscent of Hurricane Mitch’s devastation in Central America in 1998.

Unlike fast-moving systems that quickly pass overhead, Melissa’s structure allows it to sustain hurricane-force winds and rain bands for extended periods. Its outer spiral arms stretch hundreds of miles, affecting not just Jamaica but also southern Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba. Forecasters warned that flash floods and mudslides could extend far beyond the storm’s eye. The NHC compared its dynamics to Hurricane Harvey’s slow inland crawl over Texas in 2017, which produced record-setting rainfall and catastrophic urban flooding.

Jamaica’s position between the Caribbean Sea and the mountainous interior makes it particularly vulnerable to orographic enhancement, where moist air is forced upward by terrain. This effect intensifies rainfall rates, often doubling forecast totals. Meteorological models show that some parts of eastern Jamaica could receive up to 40 inches of rain—nearly an entire season’s worth in just three days.

How humanitarian organizations and international agencies are mobilizing regional aid and rescue

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has placed its regional emergency response team on standby, citing the “high likelihood of a humanitarian crisis.” The World Food Programme and UNICEF have activated logistics networks across the Caribbean, preparing to deliver aid to Jamaica and neighboring islands as soon as airports reopen.

Humanitarian planners are particularly concerned about access routes and communications. The Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston has suspended operations, while ports at Montego Bay and Port Antonio closed ahead of landfall. Once the storm’s core passes, debris-clogged roads and downed power lines will likely slow relief convoys. CDEMA said that regional airlift support and amphibious logistics will be crucial for reaching cut-off coastal communities.

International aid agencies also fear that waterborne disease outbreaks could follow the flooding, especially in areas where sanitation infrastructure is damaged. After Hurricane Beryl, cholera cases briefly spiked in the region—a scenario health authorities hope to prevent through rapid water purification and medical deployments.

Why experts warn that Melissa could redefine Jamaica’s modern hurricane history

Climatologists and emergency analysts agree that Hurricane Melissa may be remembered as a defining test of Jamaica’s disaster readiness. The storm’s behavior—intensifying explosively, stalling over warm water, and producing multiday rainfall—embodies the evolving face of Caribbean climate risks. According to NOAA’s hurricane specialists, such slow-moving, moisture-rich systems are becoming more common as sea surface temperatures rise and atmospheric steering currents weaken.

The human toll remains uncertain, but early indicators suggest that Melissa’s prolonged impact could rival or surpass the economic and humanitarian costs of past disasters. Analysts pointed out that even after the storm departs, the secondary challenges—mudslides, disease prevention, and rebuilding—could persist for months.

For now, forecasters and government officials are united in their message: stay sheltered, avoid flooded areas, and await official clearance before returning outdoors. With Melissa’s eye wall wobbling along the island’s coast, the most dangerous hours may still lie ahead. The storm’s legacy will depend not only on its final wind speed but on the resilience of Jamaica’s people and the coordination of its emergency response in the days to come.