GSK FY2025 results show momentum in HIV and oncology while vaccines and general medicines face pressure

GSK plc (LSE/NYSE: GSK) reported its full-year 2025 financial results on February 4, 2026, delivering a solid performance driven by rapid expansion in its Specialty Medicines portfolio. Full-year revenue rose to £32.7 billion, reflecting a 7 percent increase at constant exchange rates. Core operating profit grew by 11 percent to £9.78 billion, and core earnings per share climbed 12 percent to 172.0p. Free cash flow reached £4.0 billion for the year, strengthening the company’s position as it heads into a critical period of commercial execution and pipeline delivery.

The company’s management reaffirmed its 2031 revenue target of over £40 billion and issued full-year 2026 guidance that includes turnover growth between 3 to 5 percent and core earnings growth of 7 to 9 percent. GSK’s forward trajectory continues to rely heavily on Specialty Medicines growth and disciplined investment in oncology and respiratory programs, though pressure is building on vaccines and general medicines to contribute more meaningfully.

What drove GSK’s earnings growth in 2025 and where did it come from?

Specialty Medicines was the clear growth engine in 2025, generating £13.5 billion in revenue, an increase of 17 percent at constant exchange rates. The performance was broad-based, with HIV treatments growing 11 percent, respiratory and immunology up 18 percent, and oncology expanding by 43 percent. This segment alone accounted for 41 percent of GSK’s total revenue in 2025.

The HIV portfolio reached £7.69 billion in annual sales, with long-acting therapies such as Cabenuva and Apretude representing more than 75 percent of year-on-year growth. In the United States, long-acting injectables now make up 30 percent of total HIV sales. Cabenuva delivered £1.4 billion in 2025, with 42 percent annual growth, while Apretude added £439 million, up 62 percent year over year. Dovato, the company’s once-daily oral 2-drug regimen, remained the top-selling product in the HIV franchise with £2.68 billion in sales.

Oncology revenue was up sharply to £1.98 billion. The primary contributors were Jemperli, with 89 percent growth driven by expanded endometrial cancer indications, and Ojjaara, which grew 60 percent following successful launches in more than 30 countries. Zejula declined slightly due to label restrictions and pricing pressure, though channel mix partially mitigated this in the United States.

Respiratory and immunology therapies added £3.81 billion, with double-digit growth across all regions. Nucala posted £2.01 billion in sales, rising 15 percent year over year, driven by uptake in asthma and expanded COPD indications. Benlysta, used to treat lupus, generated £1.77 billion and grew 22 percent on strong volume and geographic penetration.

What are the key signals from GSK’s 2026 guidance and long-term sales forecast?

GSK expects FY2026 sales growth of 3 to 5 percent, with Specialty Medicines continuing to grow at a low double-digit pace. However, vaccines and general medicines are expected to be flat or decline slightly. Operating leverage is expected to come from a favorable shift in product mix and ongoing SG&A productivity. Research and development spending will increase ahead of sales as GSK pushes forward key late-stage programs in respiratory, immunology, and oncology.

Royalty income is forecast between £800 million and £850 million, while the tax rate is expected to rise to around 17.5 percent. Currency effects remain a risk, with management estimating a 3 percent negative impact on sales and a 6 percent drag on core operating profit if current exchange rates persist.

GSK’s 2031 goal of more than £40 billion in annual revenue was reiterated. Achieving that target will likely require consistent execution in expanding global market share for HIV and oncology therapies, scaling newer vaccines, and refreshing the general medicines portfolio, particularly in the face of patent expiries and US pricing reforms.

How did each therapeutic segment perform and where are the pressure points?

Vaccines generated £9.16 billion in 2025, growing 2 percent at constant exchange rates. Shingrix contributed £3.56 billion, up 8 percent, though US sales declined by 17 percent due to waning uptake among remaining unvaccinated populations. In contrast, sales in Europe grew 42 percent, while Japan saw a 13 percent increase following expanded reimbursement coverage.

Arexvy, the company’s RSV vaccine, generated £593 million, but growth in the United States slowed as patient activation challenges emerged. Momentum in Germany and tender deliveries in Canada and Spain provided a partial offset. Meningitis vaccines grew 12 percent, aided by the US launch of Penmenvy and continued uptake of Bexsero in Germany and France. Influenza vaccine sales declined 24 percent due to competitive pressures, and sales of Established Vaccines fell 5 percent, reflecting portfolio divestments and lower demand for Hepatitis products.

General Medicines declined 1 percent to £10.0 billion. Trelegy, a single inhaler triple therapy for respiratory conditions, grew 13 percent to nearly £3.0 billion, with strong volume growth globally and US sales exceeding £2 billion. However, other respiratory and general products continued to decline under generic pressure and pricing constraints.

How is the R&D pipeline evolving and what are the 2026 milestones to watch?

GSK completed five major approvals in 2025, including Exdensur for asthma, Blujepa for gonorrhoea, and Blenrep’s re-entry into the US market for multiple myeloma. Seven pivotal trials were initiated during the year, including studies for risvutatug rezetecan in small cell lung cancer and efimosfermin in MASH.

The company plans to pursue regulatory approvals in 2026 for bepirovirsen for chronic hepatitis B and tebipenem for complicated urinary tract infections. Five pivotal readouts are also expected, including for Jemperli in rectal cancer and camlipixant in chronic cough. Ten new pivotal trial starts are scheduled, targeting antibody-drug conjugates such as B7-H3 and B7-H4 for use across multiple tumor types.

There are now 29 projects in active clinical development within oncology and respiratory/immunology. Strategic acquisitions of pipeline assets like efimosfermin, velzatinib, and ozureprubart signal GSK’s intention to build out its position in underserved disease areas. The company’s collaborative framework, including deals with Hengrui, Empirico, and LTZ Therapeutics, reflects an ongoing emphasis on targeted innovation partnerships.

How did geographic trends influence performance and what are the risks?

Europe emerged as the fastest-growing geography with 12 percent growth, driven by Specialty Medicines, strong Shingrix uptake in France, and broader vaccine funding expansions. The United States grew 6 percent, though the Inflation Reduction Act’s Medicare Part D redesign introduced pricing headwinds across all segments.

The international region grew 4 percent, with Japan contributing significantly to vaccine performance. HIV growth was stable, and oncology launches contributed meaningfully. However, sales of Established Vaccines declined due to the impact of divested brands and shifting demand patterns.

Currency volatility remains a material risk. A stronger Sterling against the US Dollar and several emerging market currencies reduced reported growth in 2025 and could continue to pressure headline numbers in 2026.

What are investors and analysts watching heading into 2026?

Investor sentiment has moderately improved with GSK’s consistent delivery of earnings growth, operational leverage, and a clear capital return strategy. The dividend was increased to 66p in 2025, with 70p targeted in 2026. Institutional investors are watching for successful execution of planned product launches, delivery of pivotal trial readouts, and stabilization of vaccine growth.

The company’s £2 billion share buyback program, now 70 percent complete, provided upside to earnings per share in 2025. However, increasing net debt, which reached £14.5 billion, remains on the radar, especially as GSK balances acquisitions with internal investment and shareholder returns.

Risks heading into 2026 include sustained US pricing pressure, pipeline execution, and regulatory outcomes for priority programs like bepirovirsen and cabotegravir for PrEP. Investors are also closely watching the company’s ability to scale high-growth areas like oncology and immunology fast enough to offset declines in older portfolios.

Key takeaways on GSK FY2025 earnings, Specialty Medicines momentum, and what this signals for 2026 execution

• GSK plc delivered FY2025 revenue of £32.7 billion with 7 percent growth at constant exchange rates, confirming that the company’s post-restructuring focus on biopharma-led growth is translating into measurable financial results.

• Specialty Medicines emerged as the primary growth engine, expanding 17 percent and contributing more than £13.5 billion in revenue, underscoring the strategic importance of HIV, oncology, and respiratory assets in GSK’s long-term portfolio mix.

• The HIV franchise generated £7.7 billion in annual sales, with long-acting therapies such as Cabenuva and Apretude accounting for the majority of incremental growth, signaling a durable shift in treatment preference toward injectable regimens in key markets.

• Oncology revenue grew more than 40 percent year over year, driven by rapid uptake of Jemperli and expanding global access for Ojjaara, validating GSK’s capital allocation toward differentiated cancer therapies despite ongoing competitive pressure on legacy products.

• Core earnings per share rose 12 percent to 172.0p, supported by favorable product mix, higher royalty income, and the ongoing share buyback program, while reported earnings also benefited from lower legal and contingent liability charges.

• Vaccines delivered modest growth overall, with Shingrix performing strongly outside the United States, even as slower US uptake and competitive pressure in influenza highlighted structural challenges in mature vaccine markets.

• General Medicines remained broadly flat, as growth in Trelegy was offset by continued generic erosion across older respiratory and primary care products, reinforcing the need for portfolio renewal in this segment.

• GSK reaffirmed its 2026 guidance, targeting 3 to 5 percent revenue growth and 7 to 9 percent core earnings growth, with execution risk concentrated around pipeline delivery, pricing discipline, and currency headwinds.

• The R&D pipeline strengthened in 2025 with multiple regulatory approvals and late-stage trials, positioning 2026 as a pivotal year for oncology, respiratory, and infectious disease programs that will shape the company’s medium-term growth trajectory.

• For investors and industry observers, FY2025 confirms that GSK’s specialty-led strategy is gaining traction, but sustained value creation will depend on consistent commercial execution, successful regulatory outcomes, and the ability to offset pressure in vaccines and general medicines.