Domino’s Pizza Group (LSE: DOM) keeps FY25 profit forecast intact as Indian Feast, Chick ’N’ Dip lift Q3 traction

Domino’s Pizza Group plc has reported a modest but meaningful uptick in third-quarter sales for the 13 weeks ending 28 September 2025, supported by new product trials and stronger performance in the collection segment. Total system sales increased by 2.1 percent to reach £382.7 million, with like-for-like sales growth of 1.0 percent excluding VAT and store splits. Despite a 1.5 percent drop in total order volumes and persistent softness in delivery orders, the company maintained its full-year guidance, reaffirming underlying EBITDA expectations in the range of £130 million to £140 million.

The British quick-service restaurant operator continues to face a cautious consumer environment, where cost-of-living concerns are weighing on discretionary spend. While pricing initiatives have partially offset cost inflation, particularly in the delivery channel, the success of new limited-time offers like Chick ’N’ Dip and the Ultimate Indian Feast has helped stimulate demand and support sales momentum. Domino’s Pizza Group also highlighted industry-leading delivery times and operational consistency from its franchise network as key contributors to performance.

Across the UK and Republic of Ireland, the group reported stable execution and confirmed that new store openings remain on track to reach the “mid-twenties” range by year-end. Eighteen new stores have already opened in 2025, including the first site under its new POD format, designed to enhance delivery efficiency.

How are Domino’s Q3 numbers holding up amid a difficult consumer and QSR market?

The third quarter saw Domino’s Pizza Group generate system sales of £382.7 million, compared to £374.8 million during the same period last year. This represented year-on-year growth of 2.1 percent on a reported basis. Like-for-like system sales, excluding splits and VAT, rose by 1.0 percent, reflecting modest traction from menu innovation and pricing strategy.

However, volume dynamics remained under pressure. Total orders fell by 1.5 percent to 17.1 million during the quarter, with delivery orders declining by 3.4 percent to 10.7 million. This marks the second consecutive quarter of decline in the delivery channel, which has been more sensitive to pricing increases. In contrast, collection orders improved by 1.7 percent to 6.4 million, with a 5.7 percent sales uplift and positive contribution from national promotional campaigns.

Overall, the third quarter continued the trend seen in the first half of the fiscal year, where pricing gains have partially offset volume losses. On a year-to-date basis, total orders stood at 52.2 million, with flat volumes and system sales growing by 1.7 percent, driven largely by mix and price.

What does Domino’s Pizza Group’s Q3 2025 trading statement reveal about investor sentiment and the company’s valuation confidence?

Domino’s Pizza Group’s ability to hold its full-year EBITDA guidance has been a focal point for institutional investors and analysts following the Q3 update. With a trading environment that remains under pressure due to elevated employee costs and broader macroeconomic uncertainty, confidence in the company’s guidance range of £130 million to £140 million has been viewed as a positive signal.

Analysts have noted that the group’s pricing power appears intact, particularly given the resilience of average order values and the franchisees’ ability to manage inflationary wage dynamics. The company also maintained strong operational discipline, with service-level execution remaining a highlight. Franchisees continue to post some of the fastest delivery times in the sector, reinforcing Domino’s Pizza Group’s service differentiation.

Capital allocation strategy has also been a factor in investor sentiment. The £20 million share buyback completed during the third quarter indicated management’s belief in the company’s valuation, and offered a degree of support to shareholder returns at a time when organic growth is more modest.

How are menu innovations like Chick ’N’ Dip and the Indian Feast impacting demand trends?

Domino’s Pizza Group highlighted the positive customer response to two major product launches introduced during the third quarter. The Ultimate Indian Feast—comprising Gunpowder Chicken and Masala Paneer pizzas, paired with a complimentary wings product—accounted for 7.6 percent of orders since launch. The product originated from DomiChef, an internal competition designed to source creative product ideas from across the employee base.

Meanwhile, the Chick ’N’ Dip chicken trial, launched across stores in Northern Ireland and North-West England, has also received encouraging feedback. The group said it continues to refine the product based on consumer and franchisee input, with an eye toward a possible system-wide rollout in 2026. While both launches are still early-stage in their lifecycle, they have helped drive interest in collection and reinforce Domino’s innovation credentials.

The menu strategy plays an increasingly important role in offsetting broader sector softness. While price-led promotions remain part of the QSR toolkit, Domino’s Pizza Group is betting on differentiated offerings to attract and retain value-conscious customers without diluting brand equity.

How is Domino’s Pizza Group expanding its UK store network and upgrading its supply chain infrastructure through the new SCC5 facility?

Domino’s Pizza Group reported 18 new store openings year-to-date and maintained its full-year guidance of reaching mid-twenties in total new store launches. The store rollout strategy includes the first site under the new POD format, aimed at improving unit economics and streamlining delivery logistics.

The group also provided an update on its next-generation distribution project. In July, it signed the lease for its new supply chain centre in Avonmouth. Construction of the SCC5 facility began in September and is expected to significantly boost warehouse and distribution capacity. The centre will feature automation and advanced logistics capabilities that will help Domino’s Pizza Group manage future growth and provide operational redundancy as part of business continuity planning.

These capital investments are part of a broader effort to future-proof the organisation’s infrastructure, especially as cost and service expectations increase across both franchisees and end customers.

How does Domino’s Pizza Group expect to navigate the rest of FY25?

Despite the pressures seen across the QSR industry, Domino’s Pizza Group continues to navigate the environment with a combination of cost discipline, menu experimentation, and consistent service delivery. Full-year FY25 guidance remains unchanged, with the company targeting an underlying EBITDA range of £130 million to £140 million.

Other technical guidance includes underlying depreciation and amortisation of around £23 million, underlying interest costs of approximately £20 million (reflecting the impact of the share buyback programme), and an effective tax rate of about 25 percent. Capital investment for FY25 is forecast at £25 million, while year-end net debt is expected to fall between £280 million and £300 million.

Management continues to assess potential opportunities for a second brand within the portfolio, although any such move will adhere to strict internal return thresholds. Additional details on future strategic direction are expected to be shared at the company’s Investor Day, scheduled for 9 December 2025.

Chief Executive Officer Andrew Rennie reiterated the group’s confidence in hitting its full-year profit expectations, highlighting the early success of the Chick ’N’ Dip brand and ongoing franchisee collaboration in managing cost inflation. He emphasised that despite a challenging backdrop, the company’s operational momentum remains intact heading into the final quarter of the year.

Key takeaways: Domino’s Pizza Group Q3 2025 results and outlook

• System sales growth: Total system sales rose 2.1 percent to £382.7 million in Q3 FY25, with like-for-like growth of 1.0 percent excluding VAT and store splits.
• Order volume trends: Overall orders declined 1.5 percent, with delivery down 3.4 percent and collection up 1.7 percent, reflecting ongoing consumer caution and success of targeted pickup promotions.
• Menu innovation boost: The new Chick ’N’ Dip chicken range and Ultimate Indian Feast pizzas drove incremental sales and positive customer feedback, helping offset delivery softness.
• Operational momentum: Franchisees maintained industry-leading delivery times and strong service quality despite wage and cost pressures across the QSR market.
• Expansion and infrastructure: Eighteen new stores opened year-to-date, with total new openings expected to reach the mid-twenties. Construction of the new automated SCC5 supply chain centre in Avonmouth began in September 2025.
• Financial stability: Full-year FY25 underlying EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at £130 million to £140 million, alongside capital investment of £25 million and net debt forecast between £280 million and £300 million.
• Shareholder returns: A £20 million share buyback was completed, reflecting management’s confidence in valuation and long-term profitability.
• Future outlook: The upcoming Investor Day on 9 December 2025 will outline Domino’s Pizza Group’s strategic roadmap, including growth opportunities for the UK and Ireland markets.