ComEd files 2028–2031 grid plan with $13bn investment tied to clean energy and load growth

Commonwealth Edison Company (ComEd), a subsidiary of Exelon Corporation (NASDAQ: EXC), has filed its second Multi-Year Grid Plan (MYGP) for the 2028–2031 period with the Illinois Commerce Commission. The four-year roadmap outlines targeted infrastructure investments to support rapid electrification, large commercial load growth, and state-mandated clean energy goals—while projecting only a modest residential bill increase of $2.50 to $3.00 per year starting in 2028.

The new MYGP arrives amid accelerating electricity demand across ComEd’s northern Illinois service area, where over 70 substations are already experiencing major load increases. ComEd is simultaneously introducing new Transmission Security Agreements (TSAs) to prevent speculative large-load projects from shifting costs onto existing customers.

Why ComEd’s latest grid plan matters for the future of energy infrastructure in northern Illinois

ComEd’s proposed $13 billion infrastructure blueprint may become a national test case for balancing clean energy acceleration, equitable cost allocation, and grid reliability under increasingly volatile load growth conditions.

The 2028–2031 MYGP builds directly on ComEd’s ongoing 2024–2027 grid modernization efforts and is backed by its Long-Range Strategy (LRS), which aims to future-proof the network against climate volatility, electrification surges, and the proliferation of distributed energy resources (DERs). At its core, the plan reflects Illinois’ policy trajectory under the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act (CEJA) and the Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability Act (CRGA), both of which tie grid infrastructure to economic development and environmental equity.

ComEd’s 10-year strategic vision acknowledges three concurrent forces reshaping grid demand profiles: the rise of commercial hyperscale data centers, electrification of transport and building systems, and distributed generation from residential and community-scale renewables. In 2025 alone, ComEd added nine large commercial projects to its region, representing over $13 billion in investment and 2,200 jobs. This is not a normal utility load forecast. It’s a wave.

How ComEd is addressing large-load pressure without passing costs to existing customers

The announcement of eight TSAs covering over 6.5 GW of forecasted new load offers an unusually transparent mechanism for enforcing accountability among hyperscale and industrial users seeking grid access. These “take-or-pay” style agreements require collateralized commitments for 10 years of transmission service, insulating existing ratepayers from more than $2 billion in potential exposure if speculative projects fail to materialize.

This risk transfer is a critical signal. ComEd’s regulated status gives it limited latitude in shaping wholesale generation markets, but the company is actively insulating its residential and small business base from exposure to the power grid’s equivalent of “phantom bookings.” In doing so, it sets a replicable framework for other utilities—especially in PJM and ERCOT regions—facing similar floodgates of AI- and crypto-driven demand.

Additionally, proposed changes to retail large load tariffs now under review by the ICC would raise upfront deposits and installation-cost recovery mechanisms, creating further deterrents against speculative grid access requests. A ruling on these changes is expected in early 2026.

How the plan aims to accelerate renewables and distributed energy integration

ComEd’s MYGP places significant emphasis on enabling a multi-directional, DER-optimized grid architecture. The utility’s Distributed Energy Resource Management System (DERMS), already one of the first of its kind nationally, will be scaled further to streamline interconnection of wind and solar assets.

As of 2026, the ComEd grid hosts 1.4 GW of distributed solar, up from 1 GW in 2024, and that number is expected to rise materially through 2031. The MYGP includes investments in digital grid controls, analytics, and communications upgrades that will facilitate bidirectional power flow—essential for the growth of rooftop solar, battery storage, and heat pump adoption.

However, DER integration is only as good as the locational intelligence behind it. DERMS, combined with predictive analytics and AI-based weather resilience modeling, will give ComEd granular forecasting and dynamic voltage regulation capability—vital for managing the intermittency of clean power.

Will ComEd’s grid plan maintain affordability amid heavy capital outlays?

ComEd’s affordability strategy hinges on a benchmark adopted by the ICC: electricity costs should not exceed 3% of household income for non-electric heat customers and 6% for those with electric heating. Based on the proposed MYGP spending profile, ComEd projects that average residential electricity costs will remain well below this threshold—rising from 1.47% of household income in 2028 to 1.56% by 2031.

This translates to a projected annual increase of roughly $2.50–$3.00 on the average bill, excluding offsets from income-qualified programs. Importantly, this is a grid plan, not a rate filing. ComEd’s formal rate case for this period will follow in January 2027, but the utility’s framing of affordability around income ratios rather than nominal dollars reflects a shift toward policy-aligned cost communication.

Current rate benchmarking from the Edison Electric Institute positions ComEd favorably: average residential rates stand at 15.34 cents per kWh—22% below major U.S. metros and 1% below the national average. As of 2026, ComEd’s average residential bill remains at $106, which will likely serve as the political reference point during ICC deliberations.

What signals does ComEd’s long-range strategy send to investors, suppliers, and rivals?

Institutional sentiment around Exelon Corporation remains cautious but watchful. While ComEd’s strategy demonstrates capital discipline and social license awareness, execution risk remains a concern—particularly around grid build timelines, labor costs, and future load volatility.

Moreover, ComEd does not own generation, does not bid into PJM auctions, and cannot directly control supply-side costs. That limits its ability to hedge for its customers in a constrained supply market. But the TSAs are a partial hedge against poor demand forecasting.

The utility’s messaging and structural safeguards are calibrated to appeal to regulators, environmental groups, and large commercial users alike. Data center operators like Equinix have already endorsed the TSA model. For peers like DTE Energy, Ameren, and FirstEnergy—also navigating hyperscale load surges—ComEd’s grid blueprint offers a replicable balance of infrastructure expansion, cost containment, and DER integration.

At a supply chain level, the MYGP also sends demand signals across substation OEMs, transmission EPC firms, and grid analytics software vendors. Expect contracting activity to begin ramping up well ahead of the ICC’s final decision later in 2026.

What are the strategic and financial implications of ComEd’s 2028–2031 grid plan for utilities, regulators, and suppliers?

• ComEd’s 2028–2031 Multi-Year Grid Plan outlines a forward-funded response to rising electrification and clean energy goals across northern Illinois.

• The plan signals long-cycle capital demand for substation capacity, DER integration systems, and grid management platforms.

• New Transmission Security Agreements reduce the risk of stranded investment by forcing speculative large-load applicants to bear full 10-year costs.

• The company’s use of AI and predictive analytics to forecast load and weather risks strengthens its reliability thesis amid climate volatility.

• Affordability metrics remain well below the ICC’s threshold, with bill impacts projected to stay under 1.6% of household income.

• The strategy positions ComEd as a reference utility for equitable clean energy transitions—particularly in PJM-adjacent jurisdictions.

• Regulatory decision-making on retail large-load tariff changes and the broader MYGP will shape the financial contours of Illinois’ grid evolution.

• Suppliers, investors, and industrial users should treat the 2028–2031 MYGP as both a capital deployment roadmap and a structural hedge model.