China’s energy future: Sinopec predicts peak consumption and rising hydrogen use

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) has released its first long-term global energy outlook, offering an in-depth view of the future of energy consumption and transformation. The report underscores Sinopec’s commitment to pioneering a sustainable energy transition, addressing both global trends and the nuances of China’s energy landscape. Accompanied by the 2025 China Energy & Chemical Industry Development Report, this publication sets a benchmark in forecasting energy trends and industry challenges.

Global Energy Forecast: Towards a Sustainable Future

Sinopec’s report predicts a fundamental transformation in global energy consumption by 2060, emphasizing renewable energy‘s pivotal role. The findings suggest that global primary energy consumption will peak at 26.71 billion tonnes of coal equivalent by 2045, declining to 25.25 billion tonnes by 2060. The share of renewables in the energy mix is expected to rise sharply, accounting for 51.8% of total consumption by 2060.

Oil demand, while projected to peak at 4.66 billion tonnes by 2030, will remain a vital energy source, particularly in industrial feedstocks and transportation. Fossil fuels will maintain a 35.7% share of total consumption by 2060, although non-fossil energy sources, including hydrogen and Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS), will see exponential growth.

Hydrogen, a focal point in global energy transitions, is anticipated to reach 340 million tonnes in consumption by 2060, comprising nearly half of its energy use. CCUS technology is forecast to capture a staggering 4.7 billion tonnes of CO₂ annually by 2060, highlighting its critical role in achieving global climate goals.

China’s Energy Outlook: Navigating Transformation

The China Energy Outlook 2060 (2025 Edition) provides a granular analysis of China’s evolving energy landscape. Sinopec predicts that China’s primary energy consumption will peak after 2030 within a range of 6.8 to 7.1 billion tonnes of coal equivalent. The nation’s transition will prioritize diversification, incorporating electricity, hydrogen, and clean alternatives like ammonia.

By 2035, non-fossil energy will surpass fossil fuels in power generation, reaching 8,400 TWh. Between 2026 and 2030, the share of non-fossil energy in overall consumption is projected to rise to 27%, reflecting China’s ambitious climate commitments. Carbon emissions are expected to peak between 10.8 and 11.2 billion tonnes by 2030, aligning with the country’s environmental targets.

The report also highlights the strategic role of natural gas, which will experience steady growth, particularly from 2026 to 2030, when consumption could increase by 110 billion cubic meters.

Challenges and Innovation in China’s Chemical Industry

Sinopec’s 2025 China Energy & Chemical Industry Development Report delves into the country’s industrial dynamics, noting that oil refining capacity is nearing its peak, stabilizing at 960–970 million tonnes annually by 2025. Despite robust growth, the chemical sector faces challenges, including excess capacity in olefin and aromatic hydrocarbons and sustained high output in bulk chemicals.

However, Sinopec emphasizes the role of innovation as the cornerstone of progress. Advanced technologies and sustainable practices are identified as key drivers in overcoming these challenges, paving the way for a more resilient and sustainable energy and chemical industry.

Expert Insights on Sinopec’s Vision

Industry analysts view Sinopec’s projections as a reflection of the broader global shift towards sustainability. The emphasis on hydrogen, CCUS, and advanced energy storage aligns with global trends, underscoring the urgency of reducing carbon emissions while ensuring energy security. The report highlights a deliberate shift away from fossil fuels, showcasing a commitment to clean energy alternatives that could redefine the future of energy.

Sinopec’s Role in a Changing Energy Landscape

As one of the world’s largest energy and chemical companies, Sinopec’s forecast serves as a roadmap for governments and industries navigating the complexities of energy transitions. By identifying key milestones and challenges, the company not only underscores its leadership but also its role as a catalyst for innovation and sustainability in the energy sector.