Bulgaria’s centre-right Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria party, known as GERB, has emerged as the frontrunner in the latest parliamentary election, securing 26.4% of the vote in early exit polls. This result, however, does not grant GERB the power to govern alone, thrusting Bulgaria once again into coalition negotiations that are expected to be fraught with political complexity and potential instability. GERB’s leader, former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, is expected to lead the charge in these discussions, aiming to consolidate support from various parties to achieve a majority.

The reformist We Continue the Change party followed GERB in the polls, capturing 14.9% of the vote, while the ultra-nationalist Revival party took 12.9%, a figure that underscores its growing support base. Revival’s anti-EU stance and push for national sovereignty could make it a challenging coalition partner for GERB or other pro-European parties. Nonetheless, their influence is set to increase, especially among voters critical of Bulgaria’s ties with the European Union.

Coalition hurdles and Bulgaria’s political future

Experts foresee a complex period of negotiations ahead, with GERB likely reaching out to other parties for a coalition that would secure a functional majority in the 240-seat parliament. This election, Bulgaria’s sixth in three years, was prompted by the breakdown of GERB’s previous coalition government with We Continue the Change, highlighting the continued difficulty in maintaining stable governance. Analysts from Sofia University suggested that the challenges stem from “fundamental ideological differences among the top parties,” which will likely shape the upcoming coalition talks.

Political commentator Rumen Petkov highlighted that GERB’s most likely coalition partners are parties with a centrist or moderate stance on EU alignment, which could bridge gaps in policy priorities. Petkov noted that the Bulgarian electorate is showing increasing disillusionment, with only 10% expressing satisfaction with the state of governance, a sentiment that could make negotiations even tougher for Borissov and his coalition prospects.

Public sentiment and the cost of political instability

The Bulgarian electorate’s mood is highly skeptical, with over 70% reportedly dissatisfied with current political progress. Public trust in the National Assembly has plummeted to an all-time low, with only 6% showing confidence in the parliamentary body. Political discontent has created an environment ripe for nationalist agendas, particularly Revival’s, which openly challenges EU regulations and advocates for a more isolationist approach to governance.

Economists warn that Bulgaria’s prolonged political instability is taking a toll on its economy. This has resulted in increased inflation and pressures on Bulgaria’s energy sector, crucial as the nation prepares for winter. Political scientist Dimitar Ivanov remarked that “the economic costs of instability are immediate and profound, and unless this coalition government finds a sustainable way forward, economic growth will continue to stall.”

The road ahead: Bulgaria’s European stance and coalition challenges

As Bulgaria steps into yet another phase of coalition-building, the political landscape is precariously balanced. GERB’s pro-European agenda aligns with that of We Continue the Change, but significant differences in approach to EU relations and domestic policy could limit their cooperation. The ultra-nationalist Revival party’s rise to third place may further complicate matters if GERB opts to seek broader support across the political spectrum.

With Bulgaria’s European alignment at stake and internal tensions heightened, Borissov and GERB face formidable challenges. Political watchers are waiting to see whether GERB can stabilize the government long enough to enact reforms addressing inflation, governance dissatisfaction, and the EU relations that have divided Bulgaria’s political base.

Bulgarian stability on the line

A political expert commented on the difficulty GERB faces in securing a coalition, pointing out that “the political impasse is a direct result of diverging nationalistic and pro-European stances among Bulgaria’s major parties.” He emphasized that GERB’s path to power will require not just strategic alliances but also compromises that may come at the cost of political cohesion.

  Boyko Borissov, Bulgaria, Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria, GERB, Revival, We Continue the Change