In a stunning display of political strategy and perseverance, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has managed to secure a third consecutive term in Haryana, becoming the first party in the state’s history to achieve such a feat. Despite predictions favoring a Congress comeback, BJP’s win by capturing 48 out of the 90 seats in the assembly stands as a testament to its evolving tactics, strategic alliances, and connection with key demographics across the state.

The BJP’s historic hat-trick in Haryana is a significant achievement, particularly in a state where anti-incumbency has often led to changes in government. The results defied exit poll predictions, which had initially placed Congress in a strong position to reclaim power. Analysts had expected a tight contest, but BJP’s strong groundwork and strategic changes propelled it to victory, leaving Congress with only 37 seats. This victory is not only a momentous occasion for BJP but also a critical juncture in Haryana’s political landscape, indicating a paradigm shift in voter loyalty and preference.

How BJP Overcame Anti-Incumbency and Political Predictions

The 2024 Haryana Assembly election was initially believed to be a sure shot for Congress. However, BJP managed to overcome massive anti-incumbency sentiments, which were expected to hurt its chances after two successive terms. By focusing on fresh candidates, the party replaced Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC leader, in a tactical move designed to secure votes from non-Jat communities, Dalits, and the OBCs—segments that make up a significant portion of the state’s population. This shift in leadership was pivotal in rejuvenating the party’s image and countering voter fatigue.

The BJP’s decision to replace Khattar, who had been a prominent face of the government since 2014, demonstrated its willingness to adapt and evolve in response to changing political sentiments. Nayab Singh Saini, as an OBC leader, played a crucial role in securing the support of non-Jat voters, who have historically been wary of Jat dominance in Haryana politics. This strategic move helped BJP secure a broader base of support, encompassing OBCs, Dalits, and other marginalized communities.

In contrast, the Congress faced significant internal strife regarding its choice for chief minister. Several prominent leaders, including Bhupinder Singh Hooda, Kumari Selja, and Deepender Hooda, were in contention, leading to a lack of unified leadership. This infighting weakened the party’s campaign, as it struggled to present a clear vision and rally voters behind a single leader. The Congress’s inability to present a cohesive front ultimately played into the hands of the BJP, which capitalized on the disarray within its primary rival.

Targeting Non-Jat Voters and Crafting Alliances

One of the critical factors that worked in BJP’s favor was the counter-polarization against the perceived rise of Jat dominance within Congress. The Congress heavily targeted Jat voters by fielding Bhupinder Singh Hooda, but this emphasis spurred fears among other communities of a return to one-caste dominance. This apprehension contributed to a consolidation of non-Jat votes in BJP’s favor, particularly from OBCs, Ahirwal voters, and urban populations such as those in Gurugram.

The BJP also received support from other influential community leaders. Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh, chief of the Dera Sacha Sauda sect, was given parole just days before the election, which likely played a small yet significant role in swinging votes from his followers—mainly the non-Jat economically weaker sections—to the BJP. The sect, known for its large following among marginalized communities, has often played a role in influencing electoral outcomes in Haryana. This added layer of support, though controversial, bolstered BJP’s standing in crucial constituencies.

Furthermore, BJP’s strategic focus on consolidating the Ahirwal belt in southern Haryana, which has been a traditional stronghold for the party, proved effective. Ahirwal, which consists of 11 Assembly seats, remained loyal to the BJP, further cementing the party’s path to victory. Similarly, the BJP’s success in urban areas like Gurugram, driven by promises of development and infrastructural improvements, helped it secure the support of the urban electorate, which has increasingly become a critical voting bloc in Haryana’s political landscape.

Riding on Modi’s Popularity and Localized Development Initiatives

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s developmental initiatives and charisma were central to the BJP’s campaign, emphasizing how the central government’s focus on growth was mirrored in Haryana. Modi framed the Congress as instigators of societal unrest, particularly referencing their stance during the 2020-21 farmer protests. He claimed that the Congress’s policies threatened stability, and voters responded by reaffirming their support for BJP’s stance on governance and national unity. The memory of the farmer protests, where Congress was seen as supporting unrest, worked against it, while BJP positioned itself as the party of stability and development.

Modi, in his speeches, repeatedly highlighted that Haryana, for the first time since its formation in 1966, had chosen to continue with the same government after two full terms. His portrayal of the victory as an achievement for truth, good governance, and development resonated with the electorate, further ensuring a sweep for the BJP. The emphasis on Haryana being the “land of Gita” and associating BJP’s victory with moral and spiritual values helped in building an emotional connection with voters, solidifying support across different sections of society.

BJP also emphasized localized development initiatives, such as improvements in rural infrastructure, better road connectivity, and women’s empowerment programs, including the promotion of self-help groups like ‘Lakhpati Drone Didis,’ which targeted Dalit women. These programs resonated well with rural voters, particularly women, adding a crucial layer of support that further tilted the scales in BJP’s favor.

Lessons for Congress and the Path Forward

For the Congress party, these results signal a significant setback, not only failing to convert exit poll predictions into reality but also exposing major vulnerabilities in its candidate selection and leadership disputes. Moving forward, Congress will need to re-evaluate its strategy to include stronger alliances and more cohesive leadership if it hopes to make any headway in upcoming assembly elections in states like Maharashtra and Jharkhand. The Congress must also address its over-reliance on traditional vote banks, such as the Jats in Haryana, and craft a more inclusive strategy that appeals to a wider cross-section of the electorate.

The BJP’s victory in Haryana has broader implications, acting as a morale booster for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) at the national level and further strengthening the party’s position ahead of other state elections. For Congress, the fragmented approach in Haryana and a botched coalition strategy in Jammu and Kashmir are a wake-up call as they look to navigate a complicated political landscape across India. The Congress’s inability to effectively manage alliances and resolve internal conflicts has been a recurring issue, and unless addressed, it could face similar setbacks in future elections.

Expert View: Why BJP’s Strategy Clicked

Political commentators explained that the BJP’s success in Haryana was largely due to its adaptability and focus on counter-polarization. By understanding the socio-political dynamics of Haryana, the BJP played the non-Jat consolidation game effectively, outmaneuvering Congress, which remained overconfident in its support base among Jats. Furthermore, BJP’s choice to replace Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini ahead of the elections provided a fresh narrative and unified leadership, contrasting sharply with the Congress’s fragmented positioning.

It has also been pointed out that the Congress’s focus on Jat votes ended up alienating other communities, which led to a counter-consolidation in favor of the BJP. The Congress’s decision to re-nominate several candidates who had previously lost in 2019 further indicated a reliance on loyalty over winnability, which did not resonate well with the voters. On the other hand, BJP fielded fresh faces, removed burdensome alliances, and projected a vision of inclusive development, which ultimately worked in its favor.

The Haryana election results of 2024 demonstrate that political strategies that align well with voter demographics and address community-specific aspirations can overcome anti-incumbency and lead to historic victories. The BJP’s success in overcoming odds, adapting to voter sentiments, and presenting a unified leadership under Nayab Singh Saini reflects a nuanced understanding of the evolving political landscape in Haryana—a lesson that Congress will need to internalize if it hopes to challenge the BJP’s dominance in future elections.

  Bhupinder Hooda, BJP, Congress, Haryana Assembly Elections 2024, Haryana Election 2024, Haryana Polls 2024, Manohar Lal Khattar, Narendra Modi, Nayab Singh Saini