Baltic Sea mystery: Who is behind the latest attack on Europe’s internet?

Swedish authorities have launched an investigation into suspected sabotage after damage was discovered on an undersea cable in the Baltic Sea, intensifying concerns over the vulnerability of critical infrastructure in the region. The breakage, which was found within Sweden‘s exclusive economic zone near the island of Gotland, is the latest in a series of incidents that have raised alarms about potential Russian involvement in hybrid warfare.

The damage was detected on the Baltic Sea cable that connects Finland and Germany, operated by Finnish telecommunications company Cinia. While the company confirmed that the disruption had not affected data transmission, the cause remains unknown. Security officials fear this could be another attempt at undersea infrastructure damage, a tactic suspected to be part of a broader geopolitical strategy by Moscow.

Why Are Baltic Sea Cables at Risk?

The Baltic Sea has become a focal point of rising geopolitical tensions between Russia and Western nations, particularly since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In recent months, multiple incidents have been reported involving damage to undersea infrastructure, fueling speculation that Russia may be deliberately targeting vital communications and energy networks.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson underscored the gravity of the situation, stating that all reports of potential sabotage must be considered within the broader context of security risks in the region. He stressed that Sweden is closely monitoring developments and coordinating with European allies to ensure the safety of its infrastructure.

The European Commission has also responded, announcing plans to strengthen security measures for underwater cables, accelerate repair response times, and implement stricter enforcement of sanctions against hostile actors suspected of engaging in sabotage.

What Are the Patterns of Undersea Cable Disruptions?

The recent Baltic Sea cable damage is not an isolated event. A series of incidents have been recorded over the past two years, contributing to growing fears about the deliberate targeting of undersea infrastructure.

In September 2022, the Nord Stream pipelines, which transported Russian gas to Europe, were severely damaged by underwater explosions. While the cause remains undetermined, European officials have long suspected sabotage. A year later, in October 2023, an undersea gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia was shut down after it was damaged by the anchor of a Chinese cargo ship.

More recently, in November 2023, two telecom cables, including the C-Lion 1, were severed in Swedish waters, followed by the disruption of the Estlink 2 electricity cable and four additional telecom cables between Finland and Estonia on December 25.

Adding to the concerns, Norwegian authorities in January 2024 seized a Russian-crewed vessel suspected of involvement in damaging another undersea infrastructure line. Although definitive proof of sabotage was not established, the frequency of these disruptions has alarmed security officials.

How Is NATO Responding to Undersea Infrastructure Threats?

Recognizing the strategic vulnerability of undersea cables, NATO has launched Baltic Sentry, a patrol mission aimed at safeguarding critical infrastructure in the region. The alliance has increased its monitoring efforts, deploying naval forces to detect suspicious activities near submarine cables and pipelines.

Western security experts warn that Russia may be using unconventional methods to disrupt European infrastructure, potentially as part of a wider hybrid warfare strategy. Intelligence reports suggest that Moscow operates a shadow fleet—a network of vessels that evade Western sanctions and are suspected of engaging in clandestine activities, including damage to undersea cables.

Could There Be Alternative Explanations for the Cable Damage?

While many security analysts suspect deliberate sabotage, some experts have cautioned against drawing conclusions too quickly. The International Cable Protection Committee (ICPC) reports that, on average, 150 to 200 outages occur annually worldwide, with roughly three incidents per week. A significant portion—about 80%—of these cases are attributed to fishing activities or anchoring errors, rather than acts of deliberate interference.

Earlier this week, United Nations experts told AFP that fishing trawlers are responsible for far more undersea cable damage than suspected sabotage efforts. However, they acknowledged that the clustering of recent incidents in the Baltic Sea, coinciding with heightened geopolitical tensions, warrants further investigation.

What Happens Next in the Investigation?

Swedish authorities have confirmed that they have opened a preliminary investigation into sabotage, which allows law enforcement agencies access to additional resources for forensic analysis. The Swedish coast guard has dispatched a vessel to assess the damage and determine whether external forces were involved.

The outcome of the investigation could have significant geopolitical implications. If evidence of sabotage emerges, it may prompt Sweden, Finland, and other European nations to escalate their security measures and seek further international cooperation to protect critical infrastructure.

In the meantime, NATO and European leaders are prioritizing undersea infrastructure security, working to prevent further disruptions that could compromise communication networks, energy supplies, and national security. The Baltic Sea has become a key battleground in the evolving conflict between Russia and the West, and its undersea cables are now at the center of this growing geopolitical struggle.