Arakan Army’s strategic border seizure: Impact on Myanmar, Bangladesh, and regional stability

The Arakan Army, a powerful ethnic armed group in Myanmar, has made a bold move by seizing complete control of the Myanmar-Bangladesh border. This seizure, including the capture of Maungdaw Township, signifies a major development in the ongoing civil conflict. The group’s actions have disrupted local trade and transportation, particularly with an indefinite suspension of activity along the Naf River. This bold operation has implications for regional stability, local livelihoods, and the humanitarian crisis involving the Rohingya population.

What Does the Naf River Blockade Mean for Trade?

The Arakan Army’s decision to enforce a Naf River blockade has effectively halted cross-border trade and transportation. For decades, the Naf River has served as a crucial commercial artery between Myanmar and Bangladesh, supporting thousands of livelihoods on both sides of the border. With the river now off-limits, businesses and traders in northern Rakhine and Teknaf in Bangladesh face significant economic challenges.

Citing security concerns, the Arakan Army has justified the blockade as a necessary measure to safeguard the volatile region under its newly acquired control. However, this has not alleviated concerns in Bangladesh, where authorities have tightened border security in response to the situation.

Why Did the Arakan Army Target the Myanmar-Bangladesh Border?

By capturing Maungdaw Township on December 8, the Arakan Army now controls the last military stronghold in northern Rakhine State. This extends their authority across all three key border townships: Maungdaw, Buthidaung, and Paletwa. The group’s latest advancements are part of a long-running campaign to achieve greater autonomy for the Rakhine ethnic group.

The Arakan Army’s territorial gains are not an isolated development. Since late 2023, the group has captured 11 of Rakhine State’s 17 townships, reshaping the political and military dynamics of the region. Experts describe this as a turning point in Myanmar’s internal conflict, significantly weakening the military junta’s hold over the region.

How Is the Rohingya Community Affected?

Caught in the crossfire, the Rohingya Muslim minority faces renewed threats to their safety and well-being. As the Arakan Army consolidates its control, reports of forced displacements and violence against Rohingya civilians have emerged. With northern Rakhine State now under Arakan Army control, many Rohingya fear further marginalisation and persecution.

In neighbouring Bangladesh, nearly one million Rohingya refugees reside in camps near Cox’s Bazar. The disruption of cross-border trade due to the Naf River blockade has compounded existing challenges in these camps, where resources are already stretched thin. Aid organisations have warned of worsening conditions as the conflict intensifies.

How Is the International Community Responding?

The escalating tensions along the Myanmar-Bangladesh border have drawn international concern. Regional experts have emphasised the need for urgent dialogue to prevent the situation from spiralling into a larger crisis. However, limited access to the affected areas has made it difficult for humanitarian organisations and observers to assess the full scope of the conflict.

Bangladesh has expressed particular alarm over the potential for further refugee inflows. With the Naf River blockade disrupting essential trade routes, the economic and humanitarian toll on border communities is becoming increasingly evident. The Bangladeshi government has also stepped up border patrols, fearing the spillover of violence into its territory.

What’s Next for the Arakan Army?

The Arakan Army’s recent victories have strengthened its position in Myanmar’s civil war, but questions remain about the group’s ability to sustain control over its newly acquired territories. Political analysts suggest that governing these regions effectively will require more than military might. The group must address the needs of local populations, including the marginalised Rohingya, if it hopes to achieve long-term stability.

Meanwhile, Myanmar’s military junta, already under pressure from widespread resistance across the country, faces significant challenges in reclaiming northern Rakhine. Experts believe that the Arakan Army’s advances have further weakened the junta’s grip on the region, creating opportunities for other resistance groups to intensify their campaigns.

What Are the Implications for Regional Stability?

The seizure of the Myanmar-Bangladesh border by the Arakan Army underscores the fragility of regional stability. With the Naf River blockade cutting off a vital economic lifeline, tensions between Myanmar and Bangladesh are likely to escalate. The crisis has highlighted the need for international mediation and sustained efforts to address the root causes of Myanmar’s internal conflicts.

A Conflict with Far-Reaching Consequences

The Arakan Army’s control over the Myanmar-Bangladesh border and its enforcement of the Naf River blockade represent a pivotal moment in Myanmar’s civil war. The implications extend beyond local trade disruptions, affecting regional security and exacerbating the humanitarian plight of the Rohingya. As this complex situation unfolds, the international community must act decisively to prevent further instability and ensure that the needs of affected populations are addressed.