Aleppo falls out of government control for first time since Syrian civil war

For the first time since the Syrian civil war began, Aleppo has slipped from government control, marking a pivotal moment in the ongoing conflict. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist group, and allied rebel factions have seized most of the city. According to war monitors, Aleppo is now largely under rebel faction control, with only a few neighbourhoods still held by Kurdish forces.

The offensive, which began in late November 2024, saw HTS launching a surprise assault on key districts. Their operation led to the rapid collapse of government control over Aleppo’s western areas, including Hamdaniya and Salah al-Din. This loss represents a significant setback for President Bashar al-Assad, who has maintained control over Aleppo since 2016—a symbolic achievement in the wider Syrian civil war.

Key players and implications

The shift in government control has brought renewed focus to the vulnerabilities within the Syrian regime. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s success not only signals a resurgence of rebel faction control but also exposes the limitations of Assad’s forces, which are stretched thin due to the broader dynamics of the Syrian civil war. Military experts argue that Aleppo’s fall could serve as a turning point, emboldening opposition forces while challenging Assad’s ability to retain strategic territories.

Humanitarian crisis Syria

The battle for Aleppo has also exacerbated the ongoing humanitarian crisis Syria is facing. Thousands of civilians have fled their homes, driven by relentless airstrikes and escalating violence. Aid agencies have highlighted the dire conditions on the ground, emphasising the urgent need for humanitarian assistance in affected areas. The United Nations has reiterated calls for adherence to international law, warning that the humanitarian toll of the Syrian civil war will continue to mount without immediate intervention.

What’s next for Aleppo?

Aleppo’s position as a commercial hub and strategic asset makes its control crucial for both sides. While the regime has vowed to retake the city, the momentum gained by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham complicates these plans. Analysts believe that reclaiming Aleppo will require substantial resources, which could further stretch Assad’s already strained forces amid the ongoing humanitarian crisis Syria continues to endure.

Meanwhile, the shift in rebel faction control could lead to broader advances in other contested regions. The city’s fall not only reshapes the dynamics of the Syrian civil war but also raises concerns about the potential for prolonged instability in the region.

As the conflict enters this new phase, Aleppo remains at the heart of Syria’s struggle for power. Whether it becomes a symbol of opposition resurgence or a site of fierce counteroffensives, its fate will undoubtedly shape the next chapter of the war.