Aker Solutions raises full-year revenue outlook as Q3 2025 results show strong margin resilience and OneSubsea contribution

Aker Solutions ASA (FRA: 1AKA) has reported a 29 percent year-over-year surge in revenue for the third quarter of 2025, prompting an upward revision of its full-year revenue guidance beyond NOK 60 billion. The Norwegian engineering and energy infrastructure firm attributed its solid earnings performance to high execution momentum across key offshore oil and gas projects, increasing activity in renewables, and a substantial profit contribution from its 20 percent stake in SLB OneSubsea.

The company’s third-quarter revenue rose to NOK 17.0 billion, compared to NOK 13.2 billion in the same quarter last year. Adjusted EBITDA came in at NOK 1.5 billion, reflecting an 8.8 percent margin. Earnings per share reached NOK 1.79. Although order intake of NOK 10.3 billion yielded a book-to-bill ratio of just 0.6x, Aker Solutions emphasized strong delivery across its project portfolio and reaffirmed a net cash position of NOK 2.5 billion.

In a cautious but confident tone, Aker Solutions guided for full-year EBITDA margins of between 7.0 and 7.5 percent, excluding contributions from SLB OneSubsea. Preliminary guidance for 2026 suggests a normalization of revenues to around NOK 45 billion, reflecting expected delays in project awards and reprioritization of customer capital expenditures.

How did Aker Solutions perform financially and operationally in the third quarter of 2025?

During the third quarter of 2025, Aker Solutions maintained high activity levels across its portfolio, including progress milestones in flagship Aker BP projects and the completion of the Ormen Lange Phase 3 subsea compression system, which was executed in partnership with SLB OneSubsea. This contributed to the company’s improved revenue visibility and margin control even as order intake fell short of executed revenue.

Adjusted EBITDA of NOK 1.5 billion translated to an 8.8 percent margin, supported by earnings recognition from SLB OneSubsea of NOK 295 million. Excluding the contribution from SLB OneSubsea, Aker Solutions’ underlying margin was 7.2 percent. Operating income (EBIT) came in at NOK 1.1 billion with a margin of 6.6 percent. The company reported cash flow from operations of NOK 0.4 billion, with capital expenditure limited to NOK 94 million, representing less than 1 percent of quarterly revenue.

The total order backlog declined to NOK 61.7 billion from NOK 67.9 billion in the previous quarter. Europe accounted for 26 percent of the backlog, up from 8 percent a year ago, while Norway continued to dominate with a 69 percent share. Tender activity reached NOK 75 billion, primarily driven by opportunities in European offshore and subsea infrastructure markets.

How did each of Aker Solutions’ segments perform during the quarter?

The renewables and field development segment delivered the bulk of the topline growth in the third quarter, reporting revenue of NOK 12.5 billion, a 36 percent increase over the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment stood at NOK 1.0 billion, with a healthy margin of 8.0 percent. Key contributors included the Jackdaw platform development for Shell and the Norfolk Vanguard HVDC infrastructure projects. While legacy lump-sum projects continued to exert some pressure on margins, the second-generation renewables contracts with balanced risk-reward models delivered stronger profitability.

In the life cycle services segment, Aker Solutions reported revenue of NOK 3.8 billion and adjusted EBITDA of NOK 275 million, yielding a 7.2 percent margin. This performance was driven by long-term frame agreements and stable execution on modification projects for customers such as Equinor and Vår Energi. The order backlog for life cycle services stood at NOK 19.1 billion, supported by a 0.7x book-to-bill ratio.

SLB OneSubsea, in which Aker Solutions holds a 20 percent stake, contributed significantly to third-quarter profits. The joint venture posted revenue of NOK 9.9 billion and an EBITDA margin of 18.4 percent. Year-to-date revenue stood at NOK 30.3 billion, with a margin close to 20 percent. Aker Solutions recognized NOK 295 million in net income from this investment during the quarter and expects to receive total dividends of NOK 550 to 600 million by year-end.

Why is Aker Solutions’ slow order intake raising questions about its revenue visibility and 2026 growth outlook?

Despite the positive earnings momentum, order intake remained subdued at NOK 10.3 billion, reflecting a book-to-bill ratio of 0.6x. This trend indicates that the company is executing contracts at a faster rate than it is securing new business, potentially leading to lower revenue realization in future quarters if the tender-to-contract conversion rate does not improve.

Management acknowledged the slow pace of new order wins, particularly in the lump-sum project category, where commercial negotiations remain ongoing. The company has continued to prioritize alliance-based and reimbursable contracts with more predictable economics, especially for its partnerships with Aker BP and Equinor.

The company’s tender activity totaled NOK 75 billion in Q3 2025, with Europe contributing more than NOK 67 billion. However, management signaled that customers are recalibrating timelines for large-scale energy transition projects, which could delay new awards. The pipeline remains robust, but award slippages are likely to affect backlog replenishment heading into 2026.

How are institutional investors and analysts interpreting Aker Solutions’ raised guidance and long‑term market strategy?

Institutional investors have responded positively to Aker Solutions’ discipline in maintaining strong margins and cash flow, even amid a slowdown in order inflows. Analysts generally view the updated 2025 revenue guidance of more than NOK 60 billion as achievable, given the high execution velocity of existing backlog. EBITDA margin guidance of 7.0 to 7.5 percent, excluding SLB OneSubsea, reflects operational maturity and cost optimization efforts.

Market watchers have highlighted the company’s capital discipline, particularly in limiting capital expenditures and maintaining a net cash position without reliance on external borrowings. This gives the firm optionality to consider bolt-on acquisitions or equity investments without compromising its dividend policy, which aims to return 40 to 60 percent of adjusted net income to shareholders.

On the downside, the stock price has shown limited upward momentum in recent sessions. Aker Solutions ASA closed at EUR 2.42 on the Frankfurt exchange as of October 31, 2025, flat for the day and down 1.87 percent over the past five trading days. Investor caution stems primarily from the declining order backlog and relatively soft book-to-bill metrics, suggesting that FY2026 revenues may taper, as management has already indicated.

What should stakeholders monitor as Aker Solutions enters Q4 2025 and plans for FY2026?

As Aker Solutions closes out 2025, investors and industry observers will focus on the following key metrics: backlog conversion rates, progress in tender-to-contract closure from the NOK 75 billion pipeline, margin performance across the renewables portfolio, and clarity on legacy project settlements. Execution milestones in major projects such as the Sunrise Wind HVDC, Northern Lights carbon capture, and the Celsio carbon storage facility will also shape perception around operational delivery.

The company’s FY2026 revenue outlook, currently pegged at NOK 45 billion, implies a step down from 2025 highs, but the potential for upside remains if new awards materialize in early 2026. Management has reiterated its scalable execution model, with AI-driven project optimization and digitalized workflows expected to offset some macroeconomic and inflationary headwinds.

The company continues to expect working capital to normalize to a level between negative NOK 4 billion and negative NOK 6 billion over time. This could free up additional liquidity to support dividend payments, share repurchases, or targeted investments in new technologies and offshore wind alliances.

Key takeaways from Aker Solutions ASA’s Q3 2025 earnings report

• Aker Solutions ASA reported Q3 2025 revenue of NOK 17.0 billion, marking a 29 percent year-over-year increase and prompting a raised full-year revenue outlook above NOK 60 billion.
• Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter stood at NOK 1.5 billion, delivering a strong margin of 8.8 percent, with an underlying margin of 7.2 percent excluding SLB OneSubsea contributions.
• The renewables and field development segment posted NOK 12.5 billion in revenue, up 36 percent year-over-year, with an EBITDA margin of 8.0 percent driven by second-generation project execution.
• Life cycle services generated NOK 3.8 billion in revenue and an EBITDA margin of 7.2 percent, supported by stable performance on frame agreements and modification projects.
• Aker Solutions recognized NOK 295 million in net income from its 20 percent stake in SLB OneSubsea, which posted a quarterly EBITDA margin of 18.4 percent and is expected to distribute NOK 550–600 million in dividends to Aker in 2025.
• Order intake fell to NOK 10.3 billion, resulting in a 0.6x book-to-bill ratio, with the total backlog declining to NOK 61.7 billion amid slower contract conversion cycles.
• Tender activity during the quarter reached NOK 75 billion, with Europe accounting for over 85 percent, but delays in project awards continue to affect near-term backlog growth.
• The company maintained a net cash position of NOK 2.5 billion and kept capital expenditure low at NOK 94 million, reinforcing financial flexibility and dividend capacity.
• Investors responded positively to margin resilience and guidance clarity, although the stock remained subdued due to concerns about forward visibility and 2026 topline contraction.
• Management expects FY2026 revenue to moderate to around NOK 45 billion but remains focused on scalable execution, digitalization, and balanced-risk project models to support long-term earnings quality.