ABx Group stock surges 95% as rare earth extraction breakthrough fuels Dy and Tb momentum

ABx Group Limited (ASX: ABX) posted one of the sharpest moves on the Australian Securities Exchange on September 3, 2025, with shares rising more than 95% in a single session to close at AUD 0.08. Backed by a trading volume that spiked to nearly 20 million shares, this rally has renewed retail market interest in a company long viewed through the lens of bauxite mining and processing. But this time, ABx’s momentum is not being driven by its legacy business. It is being powered by breakthrough results from its ionic adsorption clay–hosted rare earths project in Tasmania—results that confirm high extraction rates of dysprosium and terbium, two of the rarest and most strategically critical metals on the planet.

With the rare earths sector dominated by Chinese suppliers and increasing urgency across Western supply chains to localize production, ABx’s transition into a clean-tech materials provider with low-acid, low-cost heavy rare earth recovery potential is drawing renewed attention from retail-focused investors, particularly those tracking critical minerals, magnet metals, and ionic clay leachability.

What recent results did ABx confirm, and how do they shift the narrative for the Deep Leads project?

The catalyst behind the price movement was a technical validation that rarely comes with this level of clarity for a micro-cap materials company. ABx announced that third-party testing conducted by ANSTO, the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, had confirmed the company’s in-house leach test results for the Deep Leads rare earths deposit. Specifically, the test results showed consistently high extraction rates for both dysprosium and terbium—exceeding 70% across a pH range from 4.0 to 4.7.

This matters because these two heavy rare earths are crucial inputs in the manufacture of permanent magnets for electric vehicles, wind turbines, military guidance systems, and other advanced applications. Global supply of Dy and Tb remains precariously concentrated in Southern China’s IAC deposits. The potential emergence of an Australian alternative that can leach these elements effectively under near-neutral pH conditions—comparable in acidity to fruit juice—implies not only economic efficiency, but also environmental compatibility. According to ABx, the use of low-acid leach conditions helps reduce the presence of deleterious impurities like aluminum and iron, which in turn lowers downstream purification costs and enhances product quality.

Could ABx become the first company in Australia to deliver a mixed rare earth carbonate from IAC clays?

In many ways, the September announcement was less about one test and more about momentum toward a major inflection point. ABx is targeting Q4 2025 for the delivery of its first Mixed Rare Earth Carbonate (MREC) sample, which would represent a significant commercial milestone. The sample will be sent to potential offtake partners for qualification and composition analysis. Notably, ABx has already signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Ucore Rare Metals Inc., a Canadian company focused on rare earth separation infrastructure in North America.

According to ABx Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Dr. Mark Cooksey, the confirmation of the company’s internal testing by ANSTO marks an important validation point in the Deep Leads development pathway. He noted that high extractions of dysprosium and terbium, coupled with low-acid processing, position the project to compete on both cost and sustainability metrics. Cooksey reiterated that ABx aims to become Australia’s first MREC producer from an ionic clay resource and highlighted that Chinese Dy and Tb clay mines are typically smaller than Deep Leads, while also facing mounting environmental scrutiny.

The confirmation of technical results not only builds confidence in the processing route, but also signals to downstream buyers that ABx could represent a stable, alternative source of heavy rare earths outside China. In the current geopolitical climate, that could carry significant weight.

How large is the Deep Leads rare earth resource, and how does it compare to other Australian projects?

The Deep Leads–Rubble Mound–Wind Break mineralised zone currently holds a JORC-compliant resource of 89 million tonnes, averaging 844 parts per million (ppm) total rare earth oxides (TREO). Critically, the deposit features 36 ppm of Dy and Tb, which account for 4.4% of the total TREO—the highest such ratio of any ionic clay deposit in Australia and among the highest globally. According to ABx’s latest disclosures, the current resource estimate has been defined from only 29% of the project’s known mineralised footprint, suggesting considerable upside potential through additional drilling and expansion.

From a chemical and metallurgical standpoint, the Deep Leads material stands out not only for its grade but for its leachability. ANSTO’s diagnostic tests across pH levels of 4.0, 4.5, and 4.7 consistently showed extraction rates of 70% or higher for both Dy and Tb. Light rare earths such as praseodymium and neodymium also demonstrated strong recovery rates, exceeding 75%. These results were achieved under ambient temperature and pressure conditions, using relatively mild concentrations of ammonium sulfate as the lixiviant. The benign operating conditions suggest that future capex and opex requirements could be materially lower than those of hard rock rare earth operations.

What makes this even more compelling for rare earth supply chains is that this kind of performance at near-neutral pH has historically been difficult to replicate outside China. According to prior ANSTO studies cited by ABx, Deep Leads may exhibit the highest ionic proportion of any clay-hosted rare earth deposit in Australia, reinforcing its potential as a strategic supply source.

What other projects and value drivers are in play for ABx Group in 2025?

While the Deep Leads rare earths project is now front and center, ABx continues to maintain exposure to other clean-tech and industrial minerals. The company’s legacy operations in bauxite remain active, with tenements across Queensland, Tasmania, and New South Wales. These assets are primarily positioned to supply bauxite for aluminium, cement, and fertiliser production. Although not currently the growth engine for the company, the bauxite portfolio gives ABx optionality in commodity upcycles and can potentially provide early-stage cash flow as rare earth development advances.

More notably, ABx is progressing the ALCORE project, a technology platform designed to extract fluorine chemicals from aluminium smelter waste. This clean fluorine production initiative aligns with the broader decarbonisation agenda and has the potential to diversify ABx’s downstream product suite. Together, the company’s three pillars—rare earths, clean fluorine, and bauxite—position it as a materials company tailored for a future shaped by electrification, clean tech, and supply chain realignment.

From a governance and operational perspective, ABx has committed to best practices in land use and community engagement. Its activities in Tasmania are conducted on private pine plantations, with full regulatory approvals in place. The company explicitly notes that it only operates where it is welcomed, aiming to leave land and environmental conditions improved post-exploration.

How is market sentiment shifting, and what should equity investors monitor next?

The market response to the ANSTO validation was immediate and aggressive. Shares in ABx jumped from AUD 0.041 to AUD 0.08 intraday, with the stock now trading near the upper end of its 52-week range. While the current price remains far below the AUD 0.135 high seen in mid-2023, the latest momentum suggests that retail investors are recalibrating their view of ABx not merely as a speculative junior, but as a legitimate player in the ionic clay rare earths segment.

Investor focus is now turning to the next set of catalysts, including the results from upcoming slurry tests which will simulate higher solids-loading conditions in leach circuits. Successful results here would strengthen the case for scalability and could pave the way for pilot plant development. But perhaps more important will be the composition and acceptance of the MREC sample due in Q4 2025. If this carbonate product meets or exceeds industry purity benchmarks, it could accelerate discussions with international offtake partners, potentially unlocking non-dilutive funding or joint venture pathways.

What investors should also watch is how ABx positions itself relative to other Australian rare earth developers. Companies like Arafura Rare Earths, Hastings Technology Metals, and Northern Minerals are pursuing hard rock or monazite-heavy strategies. In contrast, ABx’s ionic clay approach, if proven commercially viable, could represent the lowest capex and opex entry point into the global rare earths supply chain.