Libya extends Waha oil deal with TotalEnergies, targeting 100,000 boe/d boost

TotalEnergies SE (ENXTPA:TTE) has signed a long-term extension agreement for the Waha oil concessions in Libya, securing operational rights through December 31, 2050. The deal, which resets fiscal terms and unlocks a new phase of investment, was signed in Tripoli on January 24, 2026, in the presence of Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeiba during the Libya Energy & Economy Summit. This move reaffirms the French energy major’s commitment to Libya’s upstream sector and sets the stage for new production capacity, most notably from the planned development of the North Gialo field.

The Waha concessions, located in the Sirte Basin, are currently producing around 370,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. The extension allows TotalEnergies and its U.S. partner ConocoPhillips to participate in a revised fiscal structure intended to incentivize capital spending and output growth. The most immediate investment priority under the new regime is the development of North Gialo, a field that TotalEnergies expects will add approximately 100,000 boe/d of incremental production when fully operational.

For Libya, the agreement represents both a symbolic and practical commitment to restoring international investor confidence in its oil sector. Years of political instability and fragmented control have undercut production reliability. By offering more favorable fiscal terms to long-standing partners and extending concession duration, the Government of National Unity and the National Oil Corporation aim to attract sustained foreign capital into the country’s aging but still highly prospective oil infrastructure.

How does TotalEnergies’ new Libya deal align with its upstream strategy and production goals?

TotalEnergies has made clear that its upstream strategy hinges on low-cost, low-emission resources that offer scalable production with resilient margins. The Waha concessions, by virtue of their size, existing infrastructure, and geological productivity, offer an attractive opportunity under this framework. The North Gialo development project, now fully enabled by the concession extension, could significantly deepen the company’s presence in the region and deliver a material uplift to its portfolio in terms of both volume and economic return.

While TotalEnergies produced approximately 113,000 boe/d from its Libyan assets in 2025, the addition of North Gialo would represent nearly a doubling of that output over time if fully realized. Moreover, the company holds a 20.42 percent interest in the Waha concessions, equal to that of ConocoPhillips, while the National Oil Corporation retains a 59.16 percent stake. The assets are operated by Waha Oil Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of the National Oil Corporation, providing a stable operational structure that TotalEnergies has emphasized as critical for long-term project viability.

The move also aligns with the company’s broader capital discipline strategy. TotalEnergies has been actively reshaping its portfolio to balance energy transition goals with near-term profitability, exiting higher-cost or less strategic assets while deepening exposure to advantaged hydrocarbons. The extended Waha concession gives the company a 24-year runway on one of its most enduring asset positions in North Africa, with strong synergies across its onshore and offshore holdings in Libya.

What is the significance of the revised fiscal terms for the Waha partnership?

The fiscal renegotiation component of the concession extension is as important as the timeline itself. TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips had previously operated under legacy fiscal frameworks that were less conducive to sustained reinvestment. The updated structure is designed to enhance cash flow predictability and improve project economics, particularly for the capital-intensive North Gialo development.

For host countries like Libya, revisiting fiscal terms in mature basins has become a strategic imperative. Global competition for capital is intense, and even resource-rich nations must offer contractual frameworks that compete with opportunities elsewhere. The new terms reportedly address historical bottlenecks around cost recovery, profit-sharing ratios, and reinvestment allowances, although specific contractual details have not been disclosed.

The success of this fiscal recalibration will be measured by follow-through investment, timely project execution, and the degree to which additional production can be brought online without delay. From Libya’s perspective, improved fiscal clarity could unlock upwards of $20 billion in foreign investment potential tied to Waha and associated blocks, particularly if other global players view this agreement as a model for post-conflict upstream reengagement.

How does this development affect Libya’s upstream production capacity and policy direction?

Libya’s oil sector remains one of the most underutilized in the world relative to its geological potential. Although current production hovers around 1.2 million barrels per day nationally, total capacity is estimated to be closer to 1.6 to 1.8 million barrels per day if legacy infrastructure were rehabilitated and new developments brought online. The Waha concessions are central to this ambition.

The North Gialo field specifically has been earmarked as a near-term growth catalyst. If successfully executed, it could lift national production by nearly 10 percent. The project is particularly important because it leverages existing infrastructure and operational know-how while delivering high-margin barrels in a relatively low-carbon-intensity context compared to frontier deepwater or unconventional resources.

The Government of National Unity has framed the Waha agreement as part of a broader economic reconstruction plan centered on hydrocarbons. The Libya Energy & Economy Summit in Tripoli served as a platform to signal to global markets that the country is again open for business. In this context, the TotalEnergies–ConocoPhillips deal is both a symbolic and substantive turning point for foreign energy partnerships in the region.

What are the risks to project execution and long-term concession value realization?

Despite the strategic alignment between Libya and its international partners, several risks could hinder the full realization of the Waha concession’s potential. The most immediate is political volatility. While the Government of National Unity has managed to broker and sustain several key agreements, the broader political landscape remains fragmented, with rival factions and regional militias retaining varying degrees of control over infrastructure and export terminals.

Infrastructure readiness is another concern. Years of underinvestment, maintenance deferrals, and security threats have eroded pipeline integrity, storage capacity, and processing efficiency in many parts of Libya’s onshore system. Waha Oil Company’s ability to execute complex field development programs will depend on timely access to capital, skilled personnel, and importable equipment under potentially challenging logistics and regulatory conditions.

Global oil demand and price volatility also present structural risk. While Libya’s low breakeven production costs offer a cushion, long-dated upstream investments require sustained price levels to deliver economic returns. Moreover, future energy transition policies in Europe and elsewhere may tighten market access or increase compliance costs for hydrocarbon exporters.

Finally, the dynamics within the partnership itself must be considered. TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips are aligned for now, but shifts in portfolio priorities or risk appetite by either company could affect the pace or scope of planned investments. The presence of the National Oil Corporation as majority owner and operator offers continuity, but may also limit strategic flexibility depending on institutional capacity and policy direction.

How does this deal reflect broader trends in oil majors’ capital allocation and geographic risk appetite?

The Waha extension reflects a cautious but deliberate return by oil majors to politically complex but resource-rich geographies. After a decade of retrenchment, many companies are again weighing the upside of high-margin barrels in mature basins against the backdrop of constrained supply growth globally. TotalEnergies has repeatedly signaled that the energy transition will be paced by practical realities, and that low-cost oil assets remain central to its investment thesis.

The company’s global portfolio strategy has prioritized assets that meet three criteria: advantaged economics, manageable emissions intensity, and operational reliability. The Waha concessions score relatively well across all three, particularly when fiscal terms are recalibrated and operational control is maintained through a trusted joint venture model.

The extension also affirms a broader industry trend toward de-risked longevity. Securing concessions out to 2050 enables full-cycle planning, from drilling and field development to enhanced oil recovery and late-life asset management. For governments, offering such timelines demonstrates seriousness of intent and a willingness to create investor-friendly ecosystems. For majors like TotalEnergies, it means locking in options and cash flow stability in a world of rising capital costs and constrained exploration.

Key takeaways on what TotalEnergies’ Libya Waha concession extension means for the company, the oil sector, and global energy markets

• TotalEnergies has extended its stake in Libya’s Waha concessions through 2050 under revised fiscal terms that encourage reinvestment and production growth.

• The Waha partnership, which includes ConocoPhillips and the National Oil Corporation, currently produces around 370,000 boe/d with plans to increase output via the North Gialo development.

• North Gialo is expected to add approximately 100,000 boe/d, making it one of the most significant production additions in Libya’s near-term roadmap.

• The fiscal reset is designed to address historical inefficiencies and make Libya’s upstream investment environment more globally competitive.

• The extension aligns with TotalEnergies’ strategy of focusing on low-cost, low-emission hydrocarbon assets that provide long-term cash flow visibility.

• Libya’s government is using this deal as a proof point to attract further foreign capital into its oil sector after years of instability and underinvestment.

• Risks remain significant, including political volatility, infrastructure degradation, and operational complexity tied to local conditions.

• TotalEnergies’ approach reflects a broader trend among oil majors to revisit frontier and mature basins with de-risked, long-cycle investment strategies.

• Concession length through 2050 offers TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips a planning horizon that supports full-field development and recovery optimization.

• The agreement underscores the continued relevance of conventional oil plays in global portfolios, even as energy transition pressures mount.