Khamenei goes underground, U.S. carrier nears: Tensions spike after Iran protest killings

Iran’s internal crisis deepened this week amid reports that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has relocated to a fortified underground shelter in Tehran, following the reported deaths of more than 36,500 people during a two-day nationwide crackdown earlier this month. The scale of the violence, described by Iran International as the deadliest protest suppression in the country’s history, has coincided with the arrival of the United States Navy aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the region, escalating fears of a broader confrontation.

The death toll, cited in classified government documents reviewed by Iran International, has drawn condemnation from international human rights institutions and triggered mass mobilization by the Iranian diaspora. The developments come amid unprecedented restrictions on internet access, with nationwide connectivity in Iran reduced to near-zero levels since January 8. Against this backdrop, senior Iranian military officials have reportedly assessed an elevated threat of U.S. military action, prompting new protective measures for the country’s top leadership.

The protests began in late December 2025, initially triggered by economic grievances and the collapse of the Iranian rial, but quickly evolved into broader anti-government demonstrations. While Iranian authorities have publicly acknowledged far fewer deaths, independent reporting suggests that the scope and lethality of the crackdown are without modern precedent.

Documents reviewed by Iran International state that most of the deaths occurred on January 8 and 9, when security forces opened fire on demonstrators across more than 400 towns and cities. Images reviewed by the outlet reportedly show victims with gunshot wounds to the head and signs of medical intervention. Anonymous medical personnel have alleged that some injured protesters were executed while under treatment in hospitals and that others were removed under armed escort.

The Iranian Interior Ministry reportedly submitted a preliminary toll of 27,500 deaths to parliament on January 21. According to Iran International, that number was later revised upward to more than 36,500 in subsequent reports presented to the Supreme National Security Council. Verification of these figures remains limited due to the ongoing internet blackout and government-imposed communication restrictions. NetBlocks, a global internet monitoring group, confirmed that Iran’s online connectivity remains below 1 percent of normal levels more than 400 hours after the initial disruptions began.

Why did Iran reportedly move its Supreme Leader into a fortified underground shelter in Tehran?

Two individuals identified by Iran International as being close to the Iranian government reported that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has relocated to a secure underground facility in Tehran following an internal assessment of rising risk of a military strike. The decision reportedly came after senior military and security officials warned of heightened vulnerability as the United States ramped up regional naval deployments and logistical preparations.

Masoud Khamenei, the Supreme Leader’s third son, has reportedly taken charge of managing daily affairs of the Supreme Leader’s office and now serves as a primary liaison with the executive branches of the state. The Islamic Republic has not issued an official statement confirming or denying the relocation.

Such relocations are not without precedent in Iran’s security posture. During previous flashpoints with the United States and Israel, high-ranking members of Iran’s leadership have reportedly resorted to hardened infrastructure to ensure continuity of command. The development suggests that Iranian authorities are factoring in the possibility of direct U.S. military engagement, even if such a scenario remains unlikely in the immediate term.

How has the United States responded militarily amid growing instability in Iran?

The arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group in the Middle East, reportedly near Iranian waters, marks a visible escalation of U.S. readiness in the region. According to Israeli Channel 13, the deployment is accompanied by additional missile defense infrastructure, including the expected arrival of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in the coming days. A separate vessel reportedly carrying intercept systems for Israeli missile defense is also en route, further reinforcing regional deterrence capabilities.

These moves follow public remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, who stated that an “armada” was being deployed “just in case” action was necessary. While no official statement of intent for military intervention has been issued by the United States Department of Defense, the posturing reflects a strategic attempt to contain potential escalation, prevent Iranian retaliatory actions against allies such as Israel, and signal resolve to Tehran.

Channel 12 in Israel reported that the country’s Civil Aviation Authority warned international airlines of a “more sensitive period” ahead, with the possibility of airspace closures if tensions escalate further. This precaution mirrors prior instances in April and October 2024 and June 2025, when Israeli airspace was closed during periods of active confrontation with Iranian-backed entities.

What has been the international response to the reported killings and protests in Iran?

The United Nations Human Rights Council passed a resolution on January 25 condemning what it described as an unprecedented violent crackdown by Iranian security forces. The resolution calls for urgent access to the country for human rights observers and mandates an updated report on the humanitarian and legal implications of the government’s actions.

Meanwhile, diaspora protests have gathered momentum, with large rallies in Brussels, London, and other global capitals. Protesters have called for international accountability mechanisms and stronger support from Western governments. Iranian opposition figures in exile, including Prince Reza Pahlavi, reiterated their call for a secular and democratic transition in Iran through internationally supervised free elections.

Pahlavi also claimed that protesters receiving medical care are at risk of being handed over to regime forces, suggesting that state security apparatuses are actively targeting not just demonstrators, but also support networks within the civilian medical community.

Iranian security forces have reportedly arrested multiple doctors and volunteer health workers for treating injured protesters. Rights groups such as Iran Human Rights, based in Norway, stated that at least four doctors are currently missing after home raids, with others—including clinic managers and aid workers—being detained under unclear charges.

What does the reported death toll mean for Iran’s political stability and public trust?

The reported 36,500 deaths, if verified, would represent the most extensive internal use of lethal force by Iranian authorities since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. Sunni cleric Mowlavi Abdolhamid, the Friday prayer leader of Zahedan, described the situation as an “organized massacre,” and said it had created an “irreparable rift” between the people and the ruling establishment.

Analysts have pointed to the scope and speed of the repression as indicative of a premeditated strategy aimed at ending the protest movement through overwhelming force. The death of specific individuals such as 23-year-old student and futsal player Mahan Mardani and the reported killing of Atena Hosseinian, a mother shot in front of her child in Gorgan, have become symbolic for opposition movements within and outside the country.

Despite the crackdown, reports indicate that smaller demonstrations and acts of defiance persist in several provinces. However, with the internet blackout ongoing, documentation and communication remain limited.

How Iran’s protest crackdown and U.S. military movements are reshaping regional security and diplomatic alignments

Iran’s actions have widened fault lines in an already fragile region. A report from Israeli daily Israel Hayom indicated that the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and the United Kingdom are prepared to support the United States militarily if it undertakes action against Iran. The same report claims that these countries may participate in intercepting Iranian missile or drone attacks targeting regional U.S. assets or Israeli infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Steve Witkoff, U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East, confirmed on January 25 that he and other U.S. officials met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to coordinate policy under what is referred to as “Phase Two” of the Trump administration’s 20-point Gaza plan. The statement emphasized that both governments remain aligned on regional security and defense measures.

A new anti-U.S. mural unveiled in Tehran’s Enghelab Square—depicting American warships and fighter jets with the phrase “he who sows the wind will reap the storm”—signaled the Islamic Republic’s intention to frame this moment as one of resistance, despite internal instability.

What the reported Iran protest deaths and U.S. military buildup signal for regional stability and international response

• Iran is facing its largest reported domestic massacre since 1979, with over 36,500 protester deaths allegedly recorded over just two days, according to leaked internal government reports reviewed by Iran International.

• Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s reported relocation to a fortified underground shelter signals that the Iranian leadership is operating under heightened threat perception, amid fears of potential U.S. military retaliation.

• The deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln and accompanying U.S. missile defense systems near Iranian waters marks a visible escalation in U.S. regional deterrence posture, with regional allies reportedly prepared to assist in case of hostilities.

• Iran’s ongoing internet blackout, now exceeding 400 hours, has significantly hindered independent verification and humanitarian access, while medical workers assisting protesters have reportedly been detained in multiple provinces.

• Global protests and UN condemnation have intensified diplomatic pressure on Tehran, with diaspora-led movements urging international oversight, free elections, and an end to the Islamic Republic’s use of force against civilians.