Aris Mining (TSX: ARIS) beats 2025 gold guidance midpoint, targets 35% growth in 2026 on Segovia and Marmato scale-up

Aris Mining Corporation reported full-year 2025 gold production of 256,503 ounces, surpassing the midpoint of its guidance range, and announced a 2026 production target of 300,000 to 350,000 ounces. This growth will be driven by a fully ramped-up second mill at Segovia and commissioning of a new carbon-in-pulp (CIP) plant at Marmato.

With its key Colombian assets expanding and development pipelines in Guyana and Colombia advancing toward regulatory milestones, Aris Mining is positioning itself to scale production by over 90 percent within two years, supporting its ambition to become a one-million-ounce-per-year gold producer.

How does Aris Mining’s 2026 guidance position it in the Latin American mid-cap gold producer landscape?

The 2025 production performance represents a 22 percent increase over the prior year’s 210,995 ounces, consolidating Aris Mining’s operational recovery following a transitional integration phase in 2024. Crucially, the production beat was achieved with a backloaded H2 contribution: Segovia’s second ball mill, installed in June 2025, underpinned a 26 percent sequential lift in second-half output. Marmato, meanwhile, delivered above-guidance volumes across all four quarters, despite operating below its future design throughput.

For 2026, Aris Mining is targeting up to 350,000 ounces of production, with 265,000–300,000 ounces expected from Segovia and 35,000–50,000 ounces from Marmato. This sets up a compound annual growth rate of over 25 percent since 2024 and begins to align the company with higher-tier Latin American producers such as Aura Minerals, G Mining Ventures, and Calibre Mining—particularly those with multi-jurisdictional leverage and development projects nearing production.

While Aris Mining remains below the half-million-ounce threshold that would classify it as an upper-mid-tier producer, the company’s 2026 trajectory and visibility into 2027 provide clear signals to investors that production scale is no longer hypothetical. Moreover, its cash balance of over 390 million dollars at year-end 2025, even after a 60 million dollar cash acquisition for full control of Soto Norte, gives it flexibility to execute expansion without dilutive capital raises in the near term.

What execution milestones could determine whether Aris Mining hits its upper-range 2026 production target?

The most material swing factor for 2026 guidance is Marmato, where the planned Q4 commissioning of the new CIP plant will determine whether the site contributes closer to 35,000 or 50,000 ounces. Until then, mining will rely on the existing flotation plant and narrow-vein contract mining output of roughly 5,000 ounces. Owner mining capacity is expected to average 900 tonnes per day in early 2026, which will increase significantly once the new underground decline is completed in Q3 2026.

The CIP plant itself is expected to start at 3,000 tonnes per day and scale toward its 5,000-tonne nameplate by the end of 2027, contingent on completion of the paste backfill plant. The underground crosscut to the Bulk Mining Zone, scheduled for Q2 2026, is another critical pre-commissioning milestone. Slippage in these timelines would likely defer meaningful contribution from Marmato to late 2026 or even early 2027.

At Segovia, where owner-operated and contract partner mining both support production, the company has less project risk and more steady-state upside. Guidance implies an 18–32 percent increase over 2025 output, which appears credible given the consistent grade (~9.8 g/t), recoveries (~96 percent), and throughput uplift from the second mill. Any disruption to CMP-sourced material or maintenance-related downtime—such as the unplanned November 2025 maintenance event—could put pressure on the upper end of this range.

Could Aris Mining’s balance sheet strategy support its one-million-ounce target without major equity dilution?

Aris Mining exited 2025 with a reported cash balance of over 390 million dollars after acquiring the remaining 49 percent of Soto Norte. This level of liquidity, combined with steady-state cash flow from Segovia and incremental contributions from Marmato, creates a self-funding base for project development in 2026–2027.

The company has not yet released updated cost guidance for Marmato, pending commercial production from the CIP plant, but Segovia’s 2026 cash cost is forecast at 1,150 to 1,250 dollars per ounce, with all-in sustaining costs between 1,700 and 1,800 dollars. These levels, while high compared to peers with open-pit or heap-leach assets, are typical for narrow-vein underground operations in Colombia and reflect high-grade offsetting cost intensity.

Importantly, Aris Mining has communicated that it will not provide cost guidance for Marmato until commercial production begins. This conservative disclosure approach may limit near-term valuation re-rating, but it also signals management’s intent to anchor forward-looking guidance in data rather than assumptions.

The Toroparu and Soto Norte development projects, both in pre-feasibility or environmental submission stages, are next in line for capital deployment. Aris Mining has not yet committed to a formal construction decision for either but has signaled readiness to do so once permitting clarity is achieved. If self-funded ramp-up from Segovia and Marmato continues to perform, the company could stagger development expenditures without requiring major equity raises.

What are the competitive and regulatory implications of Aris Mining’s next-stage growth assets?

Soto Norte remains one of the most politically sensitive gold development projects in Colombia, with previous iterations under other operators facing community and environmental opposition. However, Aris Mining’s September 2025 pre-feasibility study included updated environmental and social design features aimed at de-risking the permitting process. The company expects to submit final environmental studies in Q2 2026 to begin the formal licensing process.

If permitted, Soto Norte could emerge as one of the highest-grade undeveloped gold deposits in Latin America. However, its social license to operate and regulatory path remain gating factors. Investors are unlikely to ascribe full value to Soto Norte until meaningful licensing progress is made.

In contrast, the Toroparu project in Guyana has a clearer path forward. A Preliminary Economic Assessment was completed in October 2025 and a pre-feasibility study is in progress. While remote, Toroparu benefits from an established mining jurisdiction and could become a key pillar of Aris Mining’s one-million-ounce production ambition if funding is secured.

Aris Mining’s current strategy of sequencing Segovia, Marmato, Toroparu, and Soto Norte in staggered ramps not only spreads execution risk but also allows capital allocation to adjust dynamically as market conditions, permitting outcomes, and cash flow generation evolve.

What is the market sentiment toward Aris Mining after the 2025 beat and 2026 outlook?

Aris Mining’s dual listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange and NYSE-American gives it broader institutional visibility than many other Latin American gold mid-caps. While the stock has remained relatively range-bound in recent months, the 2025 production beat, combined with disciplined capital management and visible near-term catalysts, may shift institutional positioning in 2026.

The absence of unexpected dilution, coupled with continued operational delivery, has been well-received by existing investors. However, the next leg of upside will likely depend on Marmato’s Q4 commissioning staying on track and permitting milestones at Soto Norte moving forward without political interference.

At current cost levels, margins remain compressed relative to open-pit producers, which may cap short-term valuation multiples. But if Aris Mining executes on its 2026 plan and enters 2027 with both Marmato and Segovia operating at design capacity, the company could begin to command a strategic premium as a diversified, multi-asset underground gold producer with a credible one-million-ounce roadmap.

What are the key takeaways for investors tracking Aris Mining’s 2026 growth plan?

• Aris Mining produced 256,503 ounces of gold in 2025, beating its guidance midpoint and growing 22 percent year-over-year.
• The Segovia expansion was the main driver, with a second ball mill boosting H2 output by 26 percent.
• Marmato contributed 28,741 ounces in 2025, consistently outperforming expectations despite infrastructure constraints.
• 2026 guidance is set at 300,000–350,000 ounces, with upside tied to Marmato’s Q4 CIP plant commissioning.
• Segovia is expected to produce 265,000–300,000 ounces in 2026, with stable grade and recoveries supporting confidence in the forecast.
• Cash balance of over 390 million dollars provides funding runway for Toroparu and Soto Norte without near-term equity raises.
• Soto Norte’s Q2 2026 environmental submission will be a regulatory inflection point watched closely by the market.
• Execution risk at Marmato remains a key variable; project slippage could shift 2026 upside into 2027.
• Institutional sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with full valuation potential tied to sequential delivery and permitting wins.
• Aris Mining is moving toward the strategic visibility required to join the upper-tier mid-cap gold producers in Latin America.