GlaxoSmithKline plc (LSE/NYSE: GSK) delivered a strong third-quarter performance for fiscal 2025, supported by broad-based growth across its Specialty Medicines, Vaccines, and General Medicines segments. The British pharmaceutical major reported total Q3 revenue of £8.55 billion, representing growth of 8 percent at constant exchange rates. This performance was driven by double-digit gains in its high-margin specialty portfolio, with notable strength in HIV, respiratory, and oncology therapies.
Investors responded positively to the financial update, sending shares of GlaxoSmithKline plc up by 6.57 percent to 1,752 GBX in one of the company’s most significant single-day rallies this year. The stock is now trading at its highest level in over twelve months. The positive price action follows the company’s decision to upgrade its full-year 2025 guidance, citing robust operating momentum and improving cash generation. The quarterly announcement also marked the final earnings call under Chief Executive Officer Emma Walmsley, who is stepping down after nine years at the helm.
The latest guidance raises expectations for turnover, core operating profit, and core earnings per share. This comes as GlaxoSmithKline plc continues to streamline its product mix, invest in pipeline progression, and scale launches of recently approved assets.
What drove the Q3 2025 revenue and earnings performance at GlaxoSmithKline plc?
GlaxoSmithKline plc posted total sales of £8.55 billion in the third quarter, up 7 percent on an actual exchange rate basis and 8 percent at constant exchange rates. Specialty Medicines contributed £3.41 billion to that total, marking 16 percent growth compared to the prior year period. HIV revenue increased 12 percent to £1.94 billion, driven by the continued uptake of long-acting injectable treatments such as Cabenuva and Apretude. The Respiratory, Immunology and Inflammation segment generated £954 million in revenue, up 15 percent, reflecting strong performance of monoclonal antibodies such as Benlysta and Nucala.
The Oncology portfolio delivered 39 percent revenue growth, reaching £511 million for the quarter. The drug Jemperli, used to treat endometrial cancer, saw sales rise by 79 percent, supported by expanded regulatory approvals and broader market access in Europe and other international markets. Sales of Ojjaara, a treatment for myelofibrosis, grew by 51 percent, with GlaxoSmithKline plc noting strong initial uptake following new launches in multiple regions including France, Canada, and Australia.
On the vaccines front, revenue increased 2 percent year over year to £2.68 billion, supported by growth in Shingrix and Arexvy. Shingrix sales were up 13 percent, driven by expanded access and public funding in European markets. Arexvy, GlaxoSmithKline plc’s RSV vaccine for older adults, saw a 36 percent year-over-year increase in sales due to higher demand in Germany, Canada, and Spain. General Medicines contributed £2.46 billion in revenue, up 4 percent at constant exchange rates. The triple combination respiratory therapy Trelegy generated £736 million, up 25 percent, reflecting continued market share gains and improved channel mix in the United States.
Operating performance was also supported by strong cost discipline and positive royalty settlements. Core operating profit increased by 11 percent at constant exchange rates to £2.99 billion, with a core operating margin of 34.9 percent. Core earnings per share came in at 55.0p, up 14 percent year over year. Free cash flow was £1.25 billion for the quarter, and GlaxoSmithKline plc declared a dividend of 16p per share for the third quarter, keeping it on track to deliver 64p in dividends for the full year.
What guidance upgrades did GlaxoSmithKline plc announce for full-year 2025?
Following the strong third-quarter results, GlaxoSmithKline plc has raised its full-year 2025 guidance across key financial metrics. The company now expects turnover growth of between 6 percent and 7 percent at constant exchange rates. This compares to the previous forecast, which anticipated growth toward the upper end of a 3 percent to 5 percent range.
Core operating profit is now expected to grow between 9 percent and 11 percent, up from a prior target range of 6 percent to 8 percent. The upgrade reflects stronger-than-expected margin leverage, continued operational efficiencies, and a favorable shift in product mix toward higher-margin Specialty Medicines. Royalty income for the year is now expected to reach between £800 million and £850 million, bolstered by an intellectual property settlement related to CureVac and BioNTech.
Core earnings per share are now expected to rise between 10 percent and 12 percent, with the company citing benefits from share buybacks and stable net finance costs, partially offset by a projected rise in the tax rate to approximately 17.5 percent. Notably, GlaxoSmithKline plc reiterated that it expects research and development investment to grow ahead of sales as the company accelerates clinical activity in oncology and respiratory programs.
How are institutional investors responding to GlaxoSmithKline plc’s Q3 delivery and forward guidance?
The strong Q3 results, revised guidance, and sustained product momentum appear to have renewed institutional investor confidence in the strategic direction of GlaxoSmithKline plc. The sharp intraday gain in the stock price on 29 October, combined with a breakout above previous trading resistance, signals robust accumulation by large holders. The company’s 6.57 percent gain in a single session positions it among the top performing stocks in the FTSE 100 for the week.
Sell-side analysts have interpreted the results as evidence that the pharmaceutical company is executing well on its post-consumer healthcare separation strategy. The focus on Specialty Medicines is delivering margin expansion and de-risking revenue concentration, while investments in new product development are yielding both regulatory approvals and early commercial traction. Institutional sentiment has also been helped by the absence of new legal liabilities and a drop in litigation-related expenses, which weighed heavily on 2024 financials.
Investor attention is now turning to GlaxoSmithKline plc’s next phase of leadership. Incoming CEO Luke Miels, who previously led the company’s Specialty Medicines business, is expected to bring continuity to the innovation-led strategy and may seek to further enhance pipeline productivity, portfolio rationalization, and disciplined capital allocation.
What key R&D milestones and product launches are on the horizon for GlaxoSmithKline plc?
GlaxoSmithKline plc highlighted fifteen pipeline assets with potential peak-year sales exceeding £2 billion that are expected to launch between 2025 and 2031. Near-term catalysts include an expected U.S. Food and Drug Administration decision in December 2025 for depemokimab, a treatment for asthma with type 2 inflammation. The company is also progressing regulatory filings for tebipenem, a potential new antibiotic for complicated urinary tract infections, and for a low carbon version of Ventolin, which demonstrated strong Phase III data in October.
Other anticipated milestones include ongoing pivotal trials for the B7-H3 antibody-drug conjugate GSK’227 in small cell lung cancer, as well as further development of efimosfermin and IDRx-42, targeting MASH and gastrointestinal stromal tumors respectively. Recently approved products such as Blenrep, Blujepa, and Penmenvy are entering broader launch cycles and are expected to contribute to future revenue and margin expansion.
GlaxoSmithKline plc is also continuing its business development strategy with selective acquisitions and licensing deals. These include an agreement with Empirico Inc. to acquire an oligonucleotide candidate for respiratory diseases and a licensing deal with Syndivia for an early-stage prostate cancer asset.
What macro, regulatory, and product‑mix risks could influence GlaxoSmithKline plc’s growth trajectory and margins in 2026?
Despite its solid third-quarter performance, GlaxoSmithKline plc faces several ongoing risks. Vaccine performance in the United States continues to be challenged by a slower-than-expected pace of Arexvy uptake and declining sales of Shingrix. Foreign exchange headwinds, driven by a stronger British pound against the U.S. dollar and other emerging market currencies, continue to compress reported growth metrics.
The evolving U.S. regulatory landscape also presents some uncertainty. GlaxoSmithKline plc noted that its full-year guidance includes the impact of currently enacted tariffs and potential 15 percent tariff implications in Europe, linked to ongoing trade investigations. The Inflation Reduction Act and related Medicare Part D redesign have introduced pricing pressure across multiple therapeutic areas, especially for older portfolio assets.
Further margin pressures may emerge from increased R&D spend, particularly as the company advances several large-scale Phase III trials. The tax rate is also forecasted to rise to around 17.5 percent, reflecting the phase-out of some prior-year tax advantages.
Key takeaways from GlaxoSmithKline plc’s Q3 2025 results and full-year guidance upgrade
- GlaxoSmithKline plc reported Q3 2025 revenue of £8.55 billion, up 8 percent at constant exchange rates, driven by double-digit growth in Specialty Medicines.
- HIV treatments contributed £1.94 billion in revenue, with Cabenuva and Apretude accounting for more than 75 percent of the segment’s growth in the quarter.
- Oncology revenue increased by 39 percent to £511 million, led by Jemperli (up 79 percent) and Ojjaara (up 51 percent), with new launches expanding global availability.
- Vaccines revenue rose 2 percent to £2.68 billion, as international sales of Shingrix and Arexvy offset softness in the U.S. due to slower pre-season uptake.
- General Medicines generated £2.46 billion, up 4 percent, with Trelegy growing 25 percent and maintaining double-digit volume growth across regions.
- Core operating profit reached £2.99 billion, up 11 percent at constant exchange rates, while core earnings per share grew 14 percent to 55.0p.
- GlaxoSmithKline plc upgraded full-year 2025 guidance, forecasting turnover growth of 6–7 percent, core operating profit growth of 9–11 percent, and core EPS growth of 10–12 percent.
- The company reported £2.5 billion in cash generated from operations and confirmed a Q3 dividend of 16p, with £1.1 billion spent YTD on share buybacks.
- Institutional sentiment turned positive, as the share price surged 6.57 percent to 1,752 GBX, reflecting strong guidance and reduced legal exposure.
- Risks include weaker U.S. vaccine performance, forex headwinds, IRA-linked pricing pressures, rising R&D investment, and potential tariff impacts under Section 232 investigations.
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