Energy Vision report shows U.S. landfills can cut methane emissions 49% and unlock $1.86bn in renewable gas revenue

In a sweeping analysis of untapped potential in the U.S. waste sector, Energy Vision has released a new report showing that widely available but underutilized technologies could slash municipal solid waste (MSW) landfill methane emissions by nearly half. The study, titled “Leading with Landfills: The Immense, Cost-Effective Potential of Advanced Technology to Reduce Methane Emissions at Landfills Nationwide,” quantifies how real-time monitoring, early gas system deployment, and installations at high-emitting sites could cut emissions, boost renewable natural gas (RNG) output, and generate nearly $2 billion in new revenue.

At a time when decarbonization strategies in sectors like oil and gas face growing scrutiny, the report positions landfills—often overlooked in climate policy debates—as low-hanging fruit for national methane reductions. According to Energy Vision, if 900 MSW landfills adopted these advanced systems, they could reduce U.S. landfill methane emissions by 49%, contributing to a 7.2% drop in total U.S. methane output.

Why Are Landfill Methane Emissions Under Scrutiny?

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, with over 80 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period. Despite comprising just 11% of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, methane accounts for nearly 25% of the climate warming experienced today, according to EPA data. Landfills are the third-largest source of methane emissions in the United States, trailing only natural gas systems and enteric fermentation in livestock.

Until recently, methane abatement efforts have prioritized the oil and gas industry. However, marginal gains in those sectors now come at higher cost. Energy Vision’s report shows that reducing landfill emissions offers a cheaper and faster path to impact.

Key Findings From The Energy Vision Report

The report identifies three actionable strategies that together define what Energy Vision calls “advanced landfill tech.” The first strategy involves enhancing gas collection and control systems (GCCS) with real-time monitoring and automated tuning technologies, which allow the systems to dynamically adapt to landfill gas fluctuations and maintain optimal capture rates.

The second strategy recommends early deployment of GCCS at working faces of landfills—those areas currently being filled—where methane emissions are highest. Traditionally, operators install systems only after landfill cells are capped, but Energy Vision’s data suggest that early action yields much higher capture efficiency.

The third strategy involves installing new GCCS at high-emitting landfills that currently lack adequate infrastructure. This is particularly relevant for legacy MSW sites, many of which still release large volumes of methane into the atmosphere unchecked.

Together, these measures could reduce methane emissions at a cost of just $8.35 per metric ton of CO₂-equivalent (CO₂e)—a remarkably low figure in the world of greenhouse gas mitigation. For comparison, plugging methane leaks from low-yield oil and gas “stripper wells” costs an estimated $19 per MT CO₂e, more than twice the cost of landfill upgrades.

Landfill Operators Could Profit While Reducing Emissions

According to the report, the economics of advanced landfill tech are compelling. The total capital expenditure (capex) required for national deployment is estimated at $1.3 billion, with an additional $250 million in annual operating costs. Yet the resulting methane capture—93 million MMBTU annually—could be refined into RNG, producing $1.86 billion in annual gross revenues and increasing the national RNG supply by nearly 70%.

Michael Lerner, Director of Research and Publications at Energy Vision and the report’s lead author, underscored the dual benefit: “Just with the current economics and incentives, the business case for this approach is remarkably compelling,” he stated. “Emerging state policies could make it even stronger.”

The RNG market itself has been expanding due to climate-focused regulatory schemes such as California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and the national Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). These programs provide financial credits for low-carbon fuel production, incentivizing landfill owners to capture and monetize methane rather than flare or vent it.

Comparison With Oil And Gas Methane Abatement

The report’s findings are especially salient in the context of ongoing methane mitigation efforts in the oil and gas industry. The Department of Energy has highlighted the disproportionate impact of “stripper wells,” which emit large volumes of methane relative to their low hydrocarbon output. While closing these wells is environmentally beneficial, it is also expensive and politically sensitive in fossil fuel-producing regions.

In contrast, landfill interventions offer a less controversial and more cost-effective route. At $8.35 per MT CO₂e, advanced landfill tech provides the lowest-cost abatement option among major methane sources. This cost advantage positions the waste sector as a strategic player in achieving national climate targets under the Global Methane Pledge and the Inflation Reduction Act.

Policy Tailwinds And Near-Term Acceleration Potential

Although federal methane policy is still evolving, several states are leading the way. California, New York, and Oregon have introduced mandates or incentives aimed specifically at landfill methane reduction. The report predicts that other states may follow, especially as RNG markets mature and project development timelines shorten.

Voluntary carbon markets could also accelerate adoption. Several institutional investors and ESG-aligned funds have already backed RNG projects as part of climate-positive infrastructure portfolios. These actors are looking for scalable, verifiable decarbonization opportunities—criteria that landfill projects increasingly meet.

The Energy Vision report notes that a relatively modest carbon price or performance standard could tip the economics further in favor of adoption, unlocking a wave of public-private investment in GCCS technologies.

Investor And Analyst Sentiment: An Underpriced Emissions Asset

Despite their low profile, landfills are gaining attention among infrastructure investors and ESG-focused asset managers. Analysts from the sustainable investing community point to a growing backlog of RNG projects at permitted landfill sites, many of which are already viable but await capital commitments.

Operators that act now may be able to secure long-term RNG offtake agreements with utilities, industrial firms, or transportation fleets looking to decarbonize. Moreover, as carbon intensity scoring becomes more granular under systems like LCFS and the Clean Fuel Standard, landfills with high methane capture rates will be positioned to command premium prices.

This financial upside is increasingly viewed as a hedge against regulatory risk. With the Environmental Protection Agency expected to tighten rules under the Methane Emissions Reduction Program (MERP), early movers could turn compliance costs into revenue opportunities.

What Comes Next For Landfill Methane Mitigation?

The report concludes that rapid scaling of advanced landfill tech hinges on financing innovation and supportive policy. Public-private partnerships, green bonds, and state-backed credit programs could lower the capital hurdle for smaller municipal landfills. Technology developers are also working on modular, AI-driven GCCS solutions that can monitor and optimize methane capture in real time, enhancing system efficiency and enabling third-party verification.

Energy Vision’s analysis reframes landfills not as environmental risks, but as powerful tools in the nation’s climate toolkit. With a clear emissions-revenue advantage, advanced landfill technology offers rare alignment between climate outcomes and economic incentives.

As Lerner put it, “At a time when funding and policy support for some clean energy sources and GHG reduction approaches are getting rolled back, advanced landfill tech is poised to roll forward. It makes sense as both a cost-effective way to cut U.S. methane emissions deeply and a smart investment landfills can make to generate additional revenue.”